AI and the Future of Knowledge Work

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We've seen this in the image space. Look at Dolly 2, for example. You can go to Dolly 2 or many platforms that allow you to train or use models like stable diffusion. But we've also seen generative models beyond images. For example, meta released a make a video model where you can provide a text prompt and from that neural network will actually generate a video. We're also seeing innovations on the 3D front and the audio front. And we expect this pace to continue for the next few years.

Welcome to the Big Ideas Monday Miniseries, brought to you by the For Your Innovation Podcast.

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To learn more, view Big Ideas 2023.

This week’s Big Ideas Monday Mini Episode focuses on Artificial Intelligence.

Generative AI made waves this year, from DALL-E-2 to ChatGPT. These tools are improving the productivity of knowledge workers—~2x in the case of AI coding assistants.

AI training cost declines continued at an annual rate of 70%, the cost to train a large language model to GPT-3 level performance collapsing from $4.6 million in 2020 to $450,000 in 2022. We expect cost declines to continue at a 70% rate through 2030.

AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030. At 100% adoption, AI could increase global labor productivity ~$200 trillion, dwarfing the ~$32 trillion in total knowledge worker salaries.

Watch the video version here.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.