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Climate Change
The four point two events seems to be more in this category in which some areas, like inland in northern syria, seem to get much drier and sights are abandoned. But if you travel only a few hundred kilometers into lebanon and parts of coastal a, there are sights which seem to be carrying on just fine. So it would seem that different areas are being affected in quite different ways. The end result is the simple model of saying, this great climate event happened, therefore it drove all these historical changes. I think increasingly the field rejects that one and is now looking for a much more nuanced argument.