Alex Gurevich is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of two books — The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020.
Gurevich led HonTe’s macro strategy in 2020 to rank second by net return according to BarclayHedge—and in the top ten of emerging managers in all strategies by Eurekahedge.
Gurevich has over twenty years of trading experience and was hailed by the Wall Street Journal in 2003 as the star trader of JPMorgan, where he served as Managing Director responsible for global macro trading.
In this episode, Gurevich shares his divergent views, which are that rates are most likely going to zero, and deflation — not inflation — is the concern.
0:00 Intro
0:31 St. Petersburg to America
1:38 Early interest in Wall Street
2:53 Poker and investing
4:39 Psychology of trading
8:37 Turning HonTe’s 2020 trading success into a book
12:33 Extreme side of the deflation camp
13:33 Two words: Policy lag
17:04 Outlook for rates
20:22 Implications of deflation
24:15 Why is there a shortage of dollars?
27:10 Scenario for deeper a longer recession, global depression
30:59 Oil and energy pivotal to the deflation story
33:14 Why Japan might be in the best position
34:34 What the inflation camp is missing
37:58 Focus on the Fed
42:11 Thesis of deflationary depression and implications for a portfolio
44:50 Why bonds will have more upside
46:00 What would alter or reinforce the thesis on deflation?
48:12 Final thoughts
