#61 Why we still use non-Bayesian methods, with EJ Wagenmakers
Learning Bayesian Statistics
How Do You Come Up With 36 Different Models?
Fisher: How do you come up with 36 different models in the first place? That's really easy, right? Because at every point in this tree, the tree divides and you get a two to the power of n or something. Fisher: I think we could probably do much more, but at some point, of course, the procedure also becomes computation intensip so just sort of strike a balance there.
The big problems with classic hypothesis testing are well-known. And yet, a huge majority of statistical analyses are still conducted this way. Why is it? Why are things so hard to change? Can you even do (and should you do) hypothesis testing in the Bayesian framework?
I guess if you wanted to name this episode in a very Marvelian way, it would be “Bayes factors against the p-values of madness” — but we won’t do that, it wouldn’t be appropriate, would it?
Anyways, in this episode, I’ll talk about all these very light and consensual topics with Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, a professor at the Psychological Methods Unit of the University of Amsterdam.
For almost two decades, EJ has staunchly advocated the use of Bayesian inference in psychology. In order to lower the bar for the adoption of Bayesian methods, he is coordinating the development of JASP, an open-source software program that allows practitioners to conduct state-of-the-art Bayesian analyses with their mouse — the one from the computer, not the one from Disney.
EJ has also written a children’s book on Bayesian inference with the title “Bayesian thinking for toddlers”. Rumor has it that he is also working on a multi-volume series for adults — but shhh, that’s a secret!
EJ’s lab publishes regularly on a host of Bayesian topics, so check out his website, particularly when you are interested in Bayesian hypothesis testing. The same goes for his blog by the way, “BayesianSpectacles”.
Wait, what’s that? EJ is telling me that he plays chess, squash, and that, most importantly, he enjoys watching arm wrestling videos on YouTube — yet another proof that, yes, you can find everything on YouTube.
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!
Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland and Aubrey Clayton.
Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)
Links from the show:
- EJ’s website: http://ejwagenmakers.com/
- EJ on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EJWagenmakers
- “Bayesian Cognitive Modeling” book website: https://bayesmodels.com/
- Port of “Bayesian Cognitive Modeling” to PyMC: https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc-resources/tree/main/BCM
- EJ’s blog: http://www.bayesianspectacles.org/
- JASP software website: https://jasp-stats.org/
- Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers: https://psyarxiv.com/w5vbp/
- LBS #31, Bayesian Cognitive Modeling & Decision-Making with Michael Lee: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/31-bayesian-cognitive-modeling-michael-lee
- “You can't play 20 questions with nature and win”: https://www.coli.uni-saarland.de/~crocker/documents/Newell-1973.pdf
- Applying Occam's razor in modeling cognition – A Bayesian approach: https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03210778
- Adjusting for publication bias in JASP & R – Selection models, PET-PEESE, and robust Bayesian meta-analysis: https://psyarxiv.com/75bqn/
- Robust Bayesian meta-analysis – Addressing publication bias with model-averaging: https://psyarxiv.com/u4cns
- A primer on Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/25152459211031256
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