Can I Make Money on a Market?

If you can't make much money on a market, it won't necessarily be very accurate. There are easier ways to make money than to correct their mispricings. If there's a 10% mispricing but a 15% chance that the prediction market will go bust, steal your money, or wrongly resolve the question against you, then on average you lose 5%. This doesn't mean it's impossible to have a truly accurate prediction market. Two markets right now, polymarket and calshi, where you can easily make $10,000 or more by correcting misprichings. As predicted, prediction markets are about as accurate as Nate Silver. More generally, studies find