Politics, the Dot Plot, and Fed Strategy

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut since last November, reducing the target range to 4–4.25% as weakening labor data outweighed inflation concerns. Chair Powell framed the move as a “risk management cut” and an adjustment toward neutral, while politics loomed large with Trump-aligned voices pushing for deeper cuts. Markets and analysts were left uncertain about whether this is the start of an easing cycle or simply a preemptive move in a bifurcated economy driven by AI investment on one side and labor market softness on the other.