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#39: John Hussman On Navigating One Of The Most Overextended Stock Markets Of All Time
Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom
The Fed's Guarantee of Below Average Long Term Returns
The S&P 500 could very well lose about two thirds of its value, possibly even 70% in order to simply touch historical norms. But let's assume that the Fed is able to prevent that by holding interest rates at zero nonstop. And also essentially guaranteeing below average long term returns. Right now, we're looking at about 1.6% structural growth. Let's add a couple of percent in inflation, you're up to 3.6%. Maybe you get up to 4% nominal growth. At the highest levels in history, then you'll get about 5.5% I would estimate in long term total return.
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