12min chapter

The Unforecast Episode: Making Our 2025 Market Calls to Show Why Forecasting is a Waste of Time

Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning

notes

CHAPTER

Economic Predictions and Market Dynamics

This chapter explores the forecasts for the economy, including predictions of stable inflation and increased merger activity outside major tech firms. The discussion also highlights the unpredictability of mortgage rates and the complexities of making accurate market predictions amid shifting sentiments. As the conversation wraps up, there's a lighthearted look at the future of their YouTube channel, reflecting on past successes and the challenges ahead.

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Transcript

Episode notes

We're back with our annual predictions episode, where we look back at our (surprisingly not terrible) 2024 market calls and make fresh predictions for 2025 (which will likely be very wrong). In this episode, we're embracing the humbling experience of market forecasting to prove to everyone (and ourselves) why market forecasting is a waste of time. You'll hear us: Review how Justin actually nailed the S&P 500 forecast for 2024 (we're still trying to figure out how) Break down why predicting markets is so ridiculously hard (but we keep doing it anyway) Share our thoughts on where inflation and Fed policy might be headed Make our predictions for 2025 - from S&P targets to potential corrections Discuss what might drive markets in 2025, including M&A activity, IPOs, and buybacks We keep it real about our hits and misses, share some laughs about our forecasting methods (including Matt's Van Halen-inspired prediction system), and try to offer some useful insights along the way. If you enjoy discussions about markets that don't take themselves too seriously while still diving into the important stuff, this episode is for you. Join us as we continue our annual tradition of probably being wrong about everything - but having fun doing it!

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