The Fallacy of Financial Models: An Insight into Predictive Limitations

In this eye-opening discussion, we delve into the controversial history and current practices of Planned Parenthood. From its eugenic origins to modern-day concerns, we explore:

* The shocking founding mission of Planned Parenthood

* Current statistics on abortion rates in minority communities

* Financial controversies and allegations of fraud

* The organization's pivot to gender transition services

* The presence of Planned Parenthood at political conventions

* A vision for reforming Planned Parenthood towards pronatalist goals

* The potential for IVF and genetic testing services

* Critiques of population modeling and fertility projections

Join us for this thought-provoking conversation that challenges common perceptions and proposes unconventional solutions to demographic challenges.

[00:00:00] And we should probably go into that. It's original mission was to genetically cleanse the United States of black people. In 1939, Singer began the Negro project the mission of the Negro Project was to put black doctors and nurses in charge of birth control clinics to reduce the mistrust that black individuals had about Getting sterilized.

So 80 percent of Planned Parenthood's abortion facilities are located in minority communities, even still. Yeah. The one that I used to go to was. Yeah. And if you look right now abortion through Planned Parenthood has reduced the black population in America by 25 percent since abortion was legalized in 1932. They've received 1. 78 billion in taxpayer money between 2019 and 2022. , I think a lot of the people making these donations, I think they receive a lot of support.

Small grassroots nations as well. Believe what I believed. Remember, I grew up in these progressive communities. I attended Planned Parenthood. My mother worked at a Planned Parenthood that, you know, I've come from, I come from a long line of Planned Parenthood supporters, [00:01:00] and we just thought that they were there to support women, just to help women plan families right now the Democratic National Convention is taking place

and Planned Parenthood is present. Offering abortion pills and vasectomies. And in there, no, no, no, no, not just offering, offering for free. . I want like afterwards a thing where like, there's two Planned Parenthood guys.

It's like. Driving out from the DNC, pull off their masks. And it's like, just like really Republican superheroes. Like, I can't, I didn't know they turned to each other. I cannot believe that just worked. We just drove up to the DNC with a sterilization ban. He said, free sterilization. And they marched their youth out there.

Bang, bang, bang, bang. Spayed and neutered.

Would you like to know more?

Hello, Simone. Today, we are going to be talking about an organization that I imagine your perspective on has changed pretty dramatically over your political evolution. And that organization is Planned [00:02:00] Parenthood. And I remember the moment where like you and I had like the biggest realization personally around Planned Parenthood was when we were trying to get pregnant.

For the first time, yeah, in 2016. You were really struggling with it. I it was, it was hard, you know, it was like, Oh my God, how are we going to make this happen? Right? And so you, coming out of Prague culture, you're like, Oh, who helps people get pregnant? Planned parenthood, right? Yeah. It's all about planning your parenthood.

Yeah. They're all about, you know, what? When you're going to have kids, when you're not going to have kids, you know, and so we're going to go to Planned Parenthood and they're going to have like services that will help me get pregnant, right? Yeah. Yeah. What did they tell you when you went to them with this?

We, we don't do that. Yeah, they, they told me they don't do that. They, they only really do the, they're a unidirectional pipeline. And this even was something that was [00:03:00] echoed in a recent free press article on Planned Parenthood being the largest provider of testosterone in the United States to trans.

Female to male individuals before we, before we go further with this, I, I want to read a little quote here. So people understand how big it is as a provider of this mind blowing. Here's a quote planned. Parenthood has in less than a decade become the country's leading provider of gender transition hormones for young adults, according to insurance claim data in 2015, around two dozen

of their clinics began offering this service. Now it's available at nearly 450 locations.

Insurance claim information provided to the free press by the Manhattan Institute shows that there are at least 40, 000 patients. Who went to Planned Parenthood for this purpose last year alone, a number that has risen tenfold since 2017 and is continuing to rise. The largest portion, about 40%, were 18 to 22 year olds.

So, when people are like, [00:04:00] Planned Parenthood is like a small player in this stuff, or not a lot is happening here. Just Planned Parenthood does 40, 000 gender transitions a year of young, young people, 18 to 22 year olds. You know, this is horrifying. Horrifying. Well, what's also really horrifying is As is pointed out at the end of this article when one of the women being interviewed for this article who did get assistance and transitioning from Planned Parenthood decided that it was actually really bad for her.

And she wanted to go back to being female and consulted them on, okay, well, this isn't working out like the. The side effects, you know, the symptoms I would, you know, they were only warned about basically two symptoms or something. And in the two hour consultation she got before she was given testosterone to take, which was, you know, obviously profoundly impactful on her body and health.

I think vaginal dryness and one other thing she [00:05:00] was warned about, obviously tons more things happened. She wanted off, she went back to them and said, Hey, this was a lot more complicated than you said. It was going to be, what do I do? They're like, we don't have a protocol for that. I don't know. Which I think shows this, like, Planned Parenthood is kind of a lie.

Yeah, they do the abortions, and they do the birth control, but they don't do the family planning when you actually want to have kids. They do the transitioning out of your birth gender. But they don't help you D transition. And that's, that's where it becomes an inherently and deeply flawed organization, because if it did what I thought growing up as a normal progressive did, which is aid people with the reproductive health and general women's health, that's fantastic.

And sometimes that involves quite frequently that involves birth control, absolutely. They helped me for example, when I was, was, when I was an adolescent choose, which birth control was going to be most effective also [00:06:00] with acne. I loved that. That was so cool, but it was birth control, right? You know, it, it wasn't like if there were instead a fertility boosting drug that would also help me with my acne, I doubt that they would have been the ones to help me out if you know what I mean.

And so I mistakenly thought that they were there for general women's health and for my wellbeing when instead they are a unidirectional. Sterilizing organization. Because of course, what does testosterone do as well? Yeah. Sterilize women. Yeah. What are the puberty blockers do? They sterilize people.

And I should note here Planned Parenthood allows people to get on a gender transition pathway at 18 without parental consent. That's why they see the big flood of people at 18. Well, because in the United States, that is when you reach adulthood and you don't, you're no longer under the care of a guardian.

Yeah. Do you remember how young 18, do you remember like 18, I believe, or I was in the U. S., that was when you could start smoking. I was like not a fully thinking individual. Well, you're not fully myelinated until your mid twenties or so. [00:07:00] Right, no, but I mean the things that mattered to me at that age on my day to day basis.

Oh, kid things, yeah, games, clothes. Were predominantly about fitting in with my peer group. Yeah. And gaining social status was in my peer group and getting ready to get into college. That was it. Like I didn't have like a larger world perspective. Yeah. You're a kid. Very dangerous age to be. Well, and it's wild too, that you can't drink alcohol, but you can fundamentally change your hormonal makeup in a way that's irreversible.

And, interesting as well, Planned Parenthood does not have a minimum age that they start gender transitions. Right. They just have consent for people under, right? One parent. And this is really dangerous when you consider the fact that, you know, kids are going through a divorce or something like that, and one parent can come in and then utilize that to gain control of the kid.

But I'm not gonna, you know, focus too much on the trans stuff in this episode because we do that in other episodes. I will note though, and this is something worth considering when you consider, [00:08:00] okay, Some people who aren't really trans get sort of picked up in the trans troll, but like, it's not that bad.

They can always just do transition, or they can always just go off hormones, or they can always just like, is it really that bad to accidentally transition someone that that is confused? Right? And we know now. You know, if you're looking at the 13 to 23 age range, nine out of 10 based on the study that was done, I believe in 2023 of people who are discontent with their gender and don't transition end up more than nine out of 10 end up completely content with their gender by the age of 30.

20 23. And we know now that people who adopt this trans identity, depending on the study you're looking at, between 40 and 50 percent of them end up committing, unaliving themselves. So it's not like a harmless thing to accidentally push someone into when you look at the rate of self harm within the community.

In fact, I don't think you would consider that like an effective treatment for anything else. If there was a [00:09:00] psychological treatment where it had a 40 percent unaliving oneself rate during treatment, people would be like, Oh, we need to be exploring other options to this treatment. And the really sad thing is, and we'll do a full episode on this, there are other options.

There was a great study done that shows that actually anti psychotics were extremely effective at lowering gender dysphoria. But you like socially were not allowed to consider. And research wise, we're not allowed to consider options that don't include affirming a trans identity, even though we know that this option has this 40 percent unaliving one's self rate, and the anti psychotics mechanism does not.

But that would be seen as, oh, well, you know, it's like, Anyway, we won't over focus on this right now. What I wanted to focus on now is like other issues with Planned Parenthood, because that's not the only issue. So, Planned Parenthood facilities have been accused of financial fraud with taxpayer dollars.

Planned Parenthood affiliates applied for and received 80 million in coronavirus stimulus funds. that [00:10:00] they were ineligible for. They stole from the paycheck protection programs that were created to help small businesses survive the pandemic. So they were using the small business paper, check protection programs.

, And they have had many lawsuits. related to fraudulent Medicare payments. For example, in one lawsuit in Iowa from a former Planned Parenthood director who has evidence of the fraud, they were ordered to pay over a million dollars in restitution to Texas when found guilty of defrauding taxpayers and in California.

A 2004 audit showed Planned Parenthood, San Diego, and Riverside counties received excess payments of various kinds of contraception for 5. 2 million, and that's just to name a few. And what's bizarre to me is that they would even need to commit Medicare fraud in the face of having received so many donations first when Trump came into office.

That was a boon for them. In fact, the free press kind of cites that as one of the major points of their increased radicalization [00:11:00] because they received a ton of more donations from people. And with all this additional support, they did a bunch of hiring and they tended to hire. politically radical people.

So there was kind of, the non profit version of audience capture in this case, where sort of a Trump derangement syndrome subject audience gave them a lot of money and then they had to sort of lean into that audience, which of course is getting them to where they are today, where the, right now the Democratic National Convention is taking place as we're recording this episode.

And Planned Parenthood is present. Not offering t shirts or

pins, but birth control and abortion pills and vasectomies. And in there, no, no, no, no, not just offering, offering for free. I actually love the horror of this. When you go to the DNC national convention, you can get a free vasectomy. Free.

I know, I know. It's insane from a van. Yeah. Tyler Bender was doing a history on YouTube about The lobotomies lobotomies and how like the guy who popularized lobotomies would have these, you [00:12:00] just fill theaters full of people who would watch him do like 15 lobotomies back to back on stage to normalize the procedure because he was so bullish on this.

And this reminds me so much of that, of just like, oh my gosh, bring out the abortion ban. Let's popularize the, the abortions. And it, it's also just sort of ironic at the same time, because. There are like literal sterilization vans outside where all of the Democrats and progressives are like convening.

What, what is going on here? I'm like, sorry, did we order this? Did the, did, like, I know we run the product, but you know, we know it's our Republicans. Yeah, I almost, I almost wanted to turn out that a Republican ordered this. They're like, yeah, we, we, I can't believe that worked. I want like afterwards a thing where like, this would be a great sketch for like the Babylon B where there's two Planned Parenthood guys.

It's like. Driving out from the DNC, pull off their masks. And it's like, just like really Republican superheroes. Like, I can't, I didn't know they turned to each other. I cannot believe that just [00:13:00] worked. We just drove up to the DNC with a sterilization ban. He said, free sterilization. And they marched their youth out there.

Bang, bang, bang, bang. Spayed and neutered. Well, here's the thing is, is that this, Is it, it's coming across as part of the whole raw, raw, like putting, like throwing into the vibes funeral pyre of the democratic party right now. But it is also a fundraising push. They are there and they're present because they're saying Dobbs was terrible.

And you have to protect reproductive rights. We are the reproductive rights. People come get your vasectomy and make sure you donate to us because we're the ones fighting for you. And I think it's really important just to be aware of, of the. back to the pragmatist guide to governance, the incentives and how they're aligned here.

The Planned Parenthood is now in a position where it is, it is very, it has been pulled very, very far from its original mission, which was dubious to start. And we should probably go into that. It's original mission was to [00:14:00] genetically cleanse the United States of black people. It's original mission. Well, it was that in eugenics.

It was, it was also like to sterilize the poor and the, You know, less resource. We can really quickly get to this. Well, yeah, I'll quickly get to this. So let's do it. Yeah. I'm actually reading from a Planned Parenthood website right now. Okay. This is what Planned Parenthood, it says about its own founding.

Archival website or current website as published today. Current website as published today. It's in the about our history section. August, 2024, ladies and gentlemen. Sanger was so intent on her mission to advocate for birth control that she chose to align herself with ideas and organizations that were ableist and white supremacist.

In 1929, she spoke to the Women's Auxiliary of the Ku Klux Klan at a rally in New Jersey to promote birth control methods. Singer reversed the 1927 Buck v. Bell decision in which the U. S. Supreme Court ruled that states could forcibly sterilize people deemed unfit without their consent and sometimes without their knowledge.

The acceptance of this [00:15:00] decision by Singer and other thought leaders laid the foundation for tens of thousands of people to be sterilized. against their will. As a result of these choices, the reproductive rights movement in many cases deepened racial injustices in the healthcare system. The field of modern gynecology was founded by J.

Marin Sims, who in the 1800s repeatedly forcibly performed invasive experiments on enslaved black women without anesthesia. In 1939, Singer began what was called the quote unquote Negro project alongside black leaders like W. E. B. Dewitt, Des Bois, Sorry, can you? No, no, no. Go back to butchering it. You know how I love that.

It's like Gomez speaking in French. I don't like foreign languages. Especially French. Polluting my American lips. Imagine you had to kiss lips so they could speak in French.

 Oh, tish. That's [00:16:00] French. Gomez. Okay and Reverend Adam Clayton Powell and, and Mary McBuesa. The mission of the Negro Project was to put black doctors and nurses in charge of birth control clinics to reduce the mistrust that black individuals had about Getting sterilized.

And so this is an important thing to remember, I think, for many black individuals is that they can sometimes think that because the leaders of their communities are endorsing something, that that something is not fundamentally racist and antagonistic to their community's interests. Because there is this like bureaucratic, I call it like, I don't know.

Union boss class was in black culture that has for a long time worked with the racist in the Democratic Party historically, you know, that's the Klan, but, you know, now it's [00:17:00] like other groups in order to undermine the actual Oh, yeah. Isn't there like a, I wouldn't say, not even a detente, but a kind of mutual understanding between a current white supremacist leader and the Nation of Islam leader?

Yeah. Yeah, but that's different. I think that they, in that, in one instance, they actually are on the same side. These are people who are, you know, manipulating black communities into sterilizing themselves for the best interests of people who are trying to Yeah, different groups versus groups that are in favor of apartheid, in which case they're like, yeah, let's just f**k off, you know?

I'll look up for edit if Planned Parenthood does still disproportionately sterilize black communities. But I'm pretty sure they do and in terms of abortions as well. Well, you know, with all this transitioning, I imagine it's a lot of white girls. So we're trying, they're trying to be a little more racially equal here.

Oh, actually, no, hold on. It's actually pretty blatant. So 80 percent of Planned Parenthood's abortion facilities are located in minority communities, [00:18:00] even still. Yeah. The one that I used to go to was. Yeah. And if you look right now abortion through Planned Parenthood has reduced the black population in America by 25 percent since abortion was legalized in 1932.

Oh! Lord! That is, oh my gosh. Wait, so I think what the 8 percent of the United States population is black right now, right? So it would be maybe closer to 6%. Well, at least according to this. But whether it's 6 percent or 8% Could have been a, you know, the percent of American abortions that are black, 34%.

Wow. And remember you were talking about money and everything like that. So in regards to how much Planned Parenthood gets from the federal government, they've received 1. 78 billion in taxpayer money between 2019 and 2022. That makes sense because of Medicaid, because they're providing a lot of primary care adjacent services to people who are on Medicaid.

Because they're in these neighborhoods, these underserved [00:19:00] neighborhoods. And so that makes a lot of sense. This is what I think we need to do. If we get involved in a Trump administration, I want to create a plan that, that takes Planned Parenthood says that, you know, they have. Not followed their, their, their mission as they present it to the public.

I don't know. They think they kind of followed their eugenics mission. Okay. Okay. They didn't follow the mission that I believe they had when I was about one helping, helping parents, right? Planned Parenthood is supposed to be about planning Parenthood, right? And then even in addition to that, actually helping trans people, that means most people who want to transition and people who want to detransition at ages by modern research.

Yeah. I say, we say, We agree with both of those things, but clearly the current board and leadership isn't doing a job. So what we need to do is either by executive order or by lawsuit, replace the existing board. The new board is Buck Angel and Kevin Dolan. Yeah. You know, people who want to have it fit this actual mission.

And the [00:20:00] reason I want to do this is I think so often conservatives end up relating to bureaucracies that get captured like this to be used for nefarious purposes by just retreating, backing out, starting something new that's not corrupted. And then when it becomes successful, it becomes corrupted. Why not just take over one of these existing organizations.

And also just the. That would happen from the individuals who had made all these giant donations to them. That now they're being used to help families and, and minority families. And they'd be like, no, I wanted them sterilized. Well, you know, I think a lot of the people making these donations, I think they receive a lot of support.

Small grassroots nations as well. Believe what I believed. Remember, I grew up in these progressive communities. I attended Planned Parenthood. My mother worked at a Planned Parenthood that, you know, I've come from, I come from a long line of Planned Parenthood supporters, and we just thought that they were there to support women, just to help women plan [00:21:00] families.

My mom wanted to have a kid. You know, ironically, I think one of the reasons why she was in fertile, the doctors had told her she couldn't have kids. And I was kind of a surprise was I think because of, of birth control that she had, that had caused a lot of scar tissue in her fallopian tubes. Birth control.

I don't know. She hasn't gone into that. I don't know if it was like abortions gone wrong or something like that, but yeah, it, it had to do with her. Some, some stuff that had happened. Yeah. So I don't know, but like, anyway, yeah, I just, I think most, most numerically of the people who donate to Planned Parenthood don't understand both its original origins and its current activities.

And, and that's so boring.

So when I think about what an ideal Planned Parenthood would be though I also have to think about modern pronatalism, and one of the big shifts that has happened with pronatalism or demographic collapse in general that we see is largely positive and that is related to this is the fact that one of the key drivers [00:22:00] of a drop in fertility is when women in nations that are developing.

Stop having unwanted teen pregnancies. We're seeing this happening really rapidly. For example, in Latin America, it's not that the intended number of children that women have is lower. It's that fewer unmarried teens who in many ways, aren't ready financially or mentally to have children are not having children and to a great extent.

That's good. You know, we, as prenatalists, as people who love children, Do not want Children to be born to families who are not equipped or ready to take care of them, especially when these families are our families that would love to have Children and that want to have Children and and plan to have the same Possibly even more Children, you know, once they're well resourced enough.

So in my world, an ideal Planned Parenthood. Yes, absolutely helps with birth control and emergency contraception. And, and even abortions through, you know, week 10 to 12 or so, right? Like totally no questions asked. Absolutely. You know, you should only have a baby when you're [00:23:00] really well, really, really welcome, ready to welcome someone into this world.

And then after that. Planned Parenthood should be also a key deliverer of OBGYN care, of, of helping women through their pregnancies. It would be a great place for there to be IVF provided. Imagine, you know, when, when demographic collapse gets far along, and honestly, it'd be better if the United States planned for this proactively, and turned Planned Parenthood into a key source of government funded IVF, which includes PGTP, that is to say pre implantation genetic testing of embryos that allows families to prioritize embryos based on health scores.

Things like cancer risk, things like which would be enormous benefit for the U S health care. Yeah. Even, yeah. Even risk of things like obesity. Think about what the American healthcare system pays. No people both pay privately. For things like cancer treatment, you know, through the nose, the amount of medical debt that Americans are in right now is insane.

Right? So that that could be reduced. And, you know, we live in a socialist country, like we're just alluding to in [00:24:00] many other podcasts people a huge number of people living at or near the poverty line, you have most of their healthcare paid for by the U. S. government. And the U. S. government could save a ton of money.

by proactively investing in families being able to select for genetically better rolls of the dice among their own genetics. So in a way, this is almost kind of true to the original eugenicist vision of Planned Parenthood of like, we want, we want healthy, you know, Americans to be born. And we don't want sterilizing instead of taking people out of the gene pool, you lift them into the general population, the best role of the dice.

Yeah. So it's not saying you don't get to roll. You're out of the game. It's saying, you know what, we're going to load the dice for you. You know, cause you didn't have a good. You, you, your odds weren't great coming in and that's great. Imagine that world. So, okay. So we're switching from a planned parenthood that's systematically planned.

Yes, but anyway, hold on. Hold on. I I also think that like [00:25:00] people forget. How horrific Planned Parenthood got during it's, it's, it's, you know, like it's early years. Yeah, when one in four pregnancies in the United States ended in an abortion where it was treated as like a regular part of and this would have been around your mom's period.

Right. So she might have seen it this way. As a regular form of birth control, equivalent to other forms of birth control. I love it when you call it birth control. It really shouldn't be seen that way. I mean, it should be treated with quite a lot of weight. See our abortion episode, which I don't know if it's gone live yet.

I don't think it has. It has, it's gone live. Yeah. Oh, okay. Last week. Yeah. Time flies. I mean, I think that as the prenatalist movement grows One of the things that we're going to have to become adapt at doing, and I really want to focus on this as a movement because I haven't seen other movements do this well, which is using legal systems and government plays to take over institutions that were created to or were being [00:26:00] used for other means but would work for a pronatalist means instead of, yeah, no, Planned Parenthood, we would be an amazing deliverer of IVF care.

Oh my gosh. And of prenatal care and institution to do something like this. But also also still birth control abortions. Again, I'm not against that. And I want to point out that a world in which abortions were banned. where people did underground abortions. It was a horrific world. You know, this, this was not, you know, in the end, I care about you know, If we have to kill babies, let us kill them with dignity and with pain management and like in the way that you would euthanize any human, you know, like very, very seriously and carefully.

Right. Like if you have a non viable. So, so, so what she's referring to here is if you get a surgery on the baby and you're like a normal mother and you're trying to keep the baby alive after 12 months. After 12 weeks, they use anesthesia on the fetus [00:27:00] because it would be considered inhumane not to.

But when they do abortions after that, they do not use anesthesia. It's not standard practice to use anesthesia. And of course, if you, if you're doing an illegal abortion, there's not even anesthesia from the mother. It's just whatever goes, you know, I mean, maybe it's well done. Maybe it's not. So the thing is, I, I, I think when we need to also kind of look at the government, like, what, Parents look at kids, which is if you ban something outright, like you say, Hey, you know, never do drug or never drink alcohol.

Your kid's going to go out. You don't know where they're going to drink. You know, you don't know who they're going to drink with. It could go pretty bad. If you're more open about that stuff and you're like, yeah, listen, you want, you want a glass of wine, have a glass of wine, whatever, like try it here.

You're able to do it in a more safe environment where there's less damage done. But the point I'm making is it's not just Planned Parenthood was in most countries, there is some sort of. Family planning organization like was in the U. S. government. Like if you wanted to create a pronatalist branch of the U.

S. government, there is already a department for family planning. Yeah. And it is, it would just make a natural sense. The infrastructure is [00:28:00] there. Not just the infrastructure, but the slush funds have already been created. So taking control of that infrastructure and taking control of those slush funds are absolutely critical for quickly achieving pronatalist aims.

I love that. I love that. It's like, okay, so you want to make America prone, more pronatalist. What do you do? And we're like, two words, planned parenthood. It's so subversive, but it makes so much sense. But it's not just things like that. You also see this within the UN, right? So the antinatalists have done this historically.

So things like the UN populations division are really heavily infested with antinatalists. And people who want to do planned rapid reductions of the human population.

But just as those organizations and nefarious individuals have infiltrated those organizations if for example, somebody in our podcast is a [00:29:00] big wig at the UN or something like that. Inserting people like us or people who we can send you who might have less public baggage than us, but are rabid pronatalists.

For example, you want to qualified woman of color who's a rabid pronatalist and has no negative baggage tied to us. We can serve you one on a silver platter. You just let us know what you need and we can give you the next head of the UN Global Population Division. That is not going to keep fudging the data.

I'm gonna put a graph on screen here right now because it horrified me when I saw

it and it came from the human population division. Or from extrapolated from their, their stuff and it shows global fertility rates going up and then going down and then just like stopping. Just stop, stop going down and they just get normal.

Yeah. Wait, wait, wait, wait. Why do you think that's going to happen? This is so common in any form of modeling though. And I had this moment in 2016 when I first started making financial models and I asked a bunch of [00:30:00] professors and other professionals and academics like, okay, so how are these models made?

Because I always used to look at models and really take them seriously and take them. Like for granted, you know, take them at face value. And then I discovered like all the formulas, everything that's going on here. It's just, you know, someone's just fudging it. Like there's just a cell. There's a place where it was like, ah, it's going to increase by I don't know, like 3%.

I was actually listening about the when, when the gold standard was dropped in around the 1930s how Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Would have these breakfast meetings and just be like, let's set the exchange rate to, you know, like, let's set the, the, the value at, you know, 21. Cause you know, 21, seven times three.

And it's like, it's a nice number and they would present it to the American people, like, you know, 21. 32 cents. You know, like just like really specific numbers

Now determining most prudent move for insurance company.[00:31:00]

The and everyone's like, wow, you know, top men are on this, this is top men.

We have top men working on it right now. And we, we, we're being taken care of here. We may be off the gold standard, but everything's going to be okay.

Ladies and gentlemen. And meanwhile, due to bureaucrats in a room nice. Yeah. And that's just how it is. And that's, that's the

Problem with modeling and all these projections is they are. B******t in the end and people can be informed, but there's, I think there's also the issue of the more academics often know about things.

Sometimes and not always. It depends on the field. It seems like the less they are able to predict and model things [00:32:00] because they know too much. They're overthinking things. She's talking about scientific studies that looked at this. She's not giving her own conjecture. Yeah, I'm not giving my own conjecture.

You can see this a little bit in prediction models. There are some exceptions where sometimes large groups of non experts make better predictions than moderate groups of experts, for example. Now that's not always true. Sometimes experts do make better predictions because they know things. It depends on the field, but still, I just feel like with most projections, I now have zero faith and there's a reason why.

 And yeah, I agree with everything you're seeing. It's something I seen. I think this is one of these things in society where the higher you rise, you realize a lot of times where you thought that like competent people who knew what they were doing were doing something and they just weren't, it was just me being like, well, that would be inconvenient if the fertility rate keeps falling, given our objective to, or they just can't have them how it would like, they're just like, you know what I think that, and what makes the most sense is I bet people just start having two kids each.

Yeah, but why? Like, you're like, but why would you think that when all leading [00:33:00] indicators say that? I don't know. It's what I want. It's what most of my friends want. Like, that, again, it's just kind of fudging intuition. And sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Oh my god, we absolutely have forgotten, and we have to do an episode on that article that you read where the girl was like, Oh, well, all of my friends in the city Want two kids and we're old.

Oh, Reagan's article. Yeah. Yeah. Because there's this article and we'll, we'll do a separate episode. That might actually work really well with the Israel discussion that we are about to have. All right, let's do it. I love you to death Simone. It is so wonderful that you are the type of woman who is able to update your views when you realize that the people you thought were good guys are horrifying baby murderers.

Well, I love that. I have the type of husband who is out of the box and creative enough to look at an organization like Planned Parenthood and say, you know what? That's the answer to our prayers. Let's use that to save pronatalism. If any of our followers have institutional. Buy in or power at any institution where you're like, you know what?

We could [00:34:00] actually slot you guys into a position like this or somebody who you recommended to us. Let us know and we will give you the people because we're always a heartbeat away from being fired from our only paying day job Absolutely. I love you Oh, it is sad. I know And we thought we were going to charge for the Collins institute and now we plan to launch it for free Yeah, thanks malcolm, but you're right to do it.

I love you Love you, Tim.