The Prior Probability of the Resurrection Hypothesis

Swinburne Tyler argues that God has reason to become incarnate and to tone for our sins. And so what that does is it raises the prior probability of the resurrection hypothesis. But at the same time we need to be careful, right? Not to do God at the gaps, but and here not to do alien at the gap, right? This is kind of like when Richard Dawkins once suggested that maybe aliens were the ones who started life on earth because it's such a hard thing to figure out how this happened.