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4min chapter
The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello
Forward Guidance
The Impact of the US Doomsayers on the Banking System
It doesn't appear that credit has contracted nearly as much as the doomsayers were saying in March, at least. Mortgage generation, which is one big lever of credit creation for the private sector and for households has clearly slowed down. So also for corporates, it's tougher to get access to cheap credit,. Not talk about auto financing or credit card rates - every kind of borrowing rate for the privatesector is higher. This is reflected in these indices. Again, the problem is lags. How long does it take until a starvation of credit for theprivate sector or a potential one plays into the real economy? Well, if you have gone to an indigestion of cheap credit
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