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#114 How Chelsea FC Uses Analytics to Drive Matchday Success
DataFramed
How to Calculate the Expected Goal in a Game
The model itself is a classification model each line of your data is a shot from any game. These features are used to predict whether the shot ends in a goal or not. By summing all these probabilities alongside a game for example you get the cumulative XG which shows how many goals you should have scored based on the model. You can then compare it with the actual number of goals you have scored both at player level and team level so see if you've overperformed or underperformed.
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