Is the Probability of an Earthquake to Morrow Zero?

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If there is an earthquake, what really matters is whether it's a little murmur or whether it's giant. So you can have the very small probabili os a large event. Now now er they are competolties. People didn't understand it when the created prodiction markets. I was then opposed to the idea of prodiction markets and i went to fi nce this paper so we can ca have grounds to discuss them.

Nassim Taleb of NYU-Poly talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his recent paper (with Constantine Sandis) on the morality and effectiveness of "skin in the game." When decision makers have skin in the game--when they share in the costs and benefits of their decisions that might affect others--they are more likely to make prudent decisions than in cases where decision-makers can impose costs on others. Taleb sees skin in the game as not just a useful policy concept but a moral imperative. The conversation closes with some observations on the power of expected value for evaluating predictions along with Taleb's thoughts on economists who rarely have skin in the game when they make forecasts or take policy positions.