Hard Landing Doubters Ignore The H.O.P.E. Data At Their Peril | Michael Kantrowitz
Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient
The Preconditions for a Downturn
If commercial real estate ends up, quote unquote, breaking, then the magnitude and duration of this downturn will possibly be worse. But again, I think the message I want to get across is that we have the probabilities of markets that are going to struggle with downside asymmetric risk. And we're far from out of the woods at this point.
(This video originally aired on April 18, 2023. We are replaying it, along with a few other of our most significant interviews of the past year, while Wealthion host Adam Taggart is dealing with a death in the family). I've said several times recently on this program, perhaps the most important and yet least appreciated trend that will drive our economic destiny in 2023 will be the lag effect.
This refers to the delayed shockwaves the economy experiences when central banks make changes to monetary policy.
We experienced one of the sharpest-ever reversals in policy a year ago, but most of the impacts from that have yet to be fully expressed, as they take many months to ripple through the economy before we can see them.
Which is why we're so fortunate to speak with today's guest, Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the H.O.P.E. framework - Housing, Orders, Profits & Employment -- which provides a way for us to track the progression of those shockwaves, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to come next.
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