The Negative Side of the US Recession

We look at two alternative scenarios, drawing lessons from three periods of previous US recessions. The first is a severely negative downside scenario akin to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis; the second is more moderately negative scenario akin to downturns experienced during the savings and loans crisis in 1990s and the dot-com bubble in 2001. Our overall expectations that financing conditions for emerging markets will remain tight is fundamentally the same. Bottom line, despite challenging credit conditions in terms of corporate credit fundamentals remain strong.