How to Price in the Lows of the Business Cycle

We don't believe that we've seen the ultimate lows of this market cycle. We're very much of the view that we did not price in a recession last year. From whatever peak we reach on the other side of that this fall, I do believe the markets are going to have to start to price in the actual credit cycle associated with the liquidity drain from 2021 through 2022. So best guess scenario based on our business cycle timing models suggests that process should start sometime in Q4 or sometime in Q1.