Month Supply Control Chart Explained

Discover how Andy Novins turns business challenges into big wins! Andy shares with host Andrew Stotz how he uses Deming strategies to outsmart competitors, watch for market shifts, and win loyal clients in one of the toughest industries around.

TRANSCRIPT

Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz and I'll be your host as we continue our journey into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm here with featured guest Andy Novins. Andy, are you ready to join and share your Deming journey?

Andy Novins: I sure am. Yep.

Andrew Stotz: We've done a lot of prep for this, had some good conversations, and I'm looking forward to it. Let me introduce you to the audience. Andy first got introduced to the teachings of Dr. Deming more than 30 years ago and has been hooked ever since. He attended Dr. Deming's four-day seminar in August of 1993, only four months before the passing of Dr. Deming on December 20th of 1993 at the age of 93. Andy was a co-owner of a women's athletic apparel company, which was eventually purchased by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. For the past 23 years, he's been applying Dr. Deming's philosophy to his work in real estate, which traditionally has operated in what could be described as in opposition to the teachings of Dr. Deming. Andy, why don't you tell us a little bit about what you're doing right now and maybe a little bit about how you got into what you're doing now, and then later we're going to talk a little bit about your experience with Dr. Deming and all that. But just let us know, where are you at? What are you doing?

Andy Novins: Okay. Well, I am in Northern Virginia, just outside Washington, D.C., and after my partners and I sold the company that Andrew just referred to, I had to decide what I was going to do. And I had about six months to do that because part of the contract required me to help the purchaser, which originally was Russell Corporation, a big athletic, they made all the Major League Baseball uniforms and everything. We had to transfer my company's systems to their systems, and that was one of the worst six months of my career, watching everything we had done, which was really all Deming-based, being sort of dismantled and worked into another Fortune 500 company at the time. It was, somewhat, actually it was a few years later that Berkshire Hathaway bought it, and it was because Russell was not doing very well. It was a rescue-type purchase by Berkshire Hathaway, which sort of had some satisfaction in mind that their systems weren't all that good. So that's where I got into Deming, and I've taken a lot of what I learned from the apparel company into real estate, which, as Andrew just mentioned, is very volume-centric, volume-focused, and focusing on processes as opposed to systems.

Andrew Stotz: And in the real estate world, for those people that don't know, let's say real estate, what position are you in? For instance, my sister is a mortgage broker in Maine, and that's a different place within the whole sphere of it, but maybe you can explain exactly where you are in the value chain.

Andy Novins: Okay. We focus on residential real estate. What we call in real estate farm, okay? I send out 5,000 newsletters a month that show to eight different areas, really, but they're all within, believe it or not, two miles of my house. And those news, I've been doing that for over 20 years. I've never made a cold call. I will never call anybody and say, are you thinking of selling or anything like that. Yet, using this process, which is all really Deming-based, I've done about 10 times the volume of any other realtor in the 5,000 homes that I service. It's the process... I don't want to use process. The system we used is based on Michael Porter, his concept of competitive advantage. And it's a system that's focused on a value chain, things that we do that other people can't do. For example, there are close to 300 sales a year in my 5,000 home market. I see every one of them. And when you see a house that's on the market, you know a lot more than anybody else does by looking at pictures. If you've ever been to an open house and after seeing it on the internet, it's a lot different than what you saw in the pictures. No other agent can do that because most agents in my area focus on Northern Virginia, which would be about 20,000 transactions a year, not 300. So they can't even try to compete with me in my area. So that's the whole concept of it is doing things. As Michael Porter would say, you have a value proposition. That's my expertise in my local area.

Andrew Stotz: Porter talks about different strategies. One, he says, is the low-cost leader. Another is the differentiation. And the third one he talks about is focus and where you're focused on a niche in the market. And then I guess I always kind of think that really he's talking about two, because with focus, you're picking a niche, but then you're going to either be a low-cost leader or probably a differentiator in that focused area. But when you talk about Porter and what he's teaching, can you explain a little bit more for those people that don't know what he talked about?

Andy Novins: Sure. Yes. Basically, yes. I mean, I'll never forget. My partner and I were at a breakfast, realtor breakfast at one point, and there was an agent sitting across the table from us and he said, I just got this listing. And he said, but I had to go down to 1%. And he's, you know, for commission. And at that time, commissions were pretty much 3%. And he kind of looked at us and said, that's better than nothing, right? And that's the low-cost. Low-cost producers will never win. It'll always be somebody else. And Porter says, you can't be the best either. Okay. There's no such thing as the best realtor. There's always going to be somebody else. So the concept for real estate is picking a niche, that for me, it was farming. I'm a pretty good writer. So I write a newsletter, and people call me when they're ready to sell their house. And it's worked beautifully for... I started that in 2003. Okay. But there's people that focus on luxury, the luxury market or people that focus on first time buyers, or people that focus on... There's all kinds of different niches downsizing or upsizing. And so you can become an expert in anything. And that's how you differentiate yourself in real estate.

Andrew Stotz: And that concept of not competing to be best that Porter talks about is great because it also forces you to think. You're focused on the wrong thing if you're focusing on how to beat the competitor. And I always enjoyed the fact that Deming was so focused on the customer.

Andy Novins: Yes.

Andrew Stotz: And that, I think with Porter, I like that. But with Deming, I just really love the idea that he saw quality in the eyes of the customer. He saw innovation and continuous improvement in relation to the customer as primary over trying to benchmark off of some competitor.

Andy Novins: Exactly. And if I go back to my apparel business, the name of our company was Moving Comfort, and we just made women's apparel. Nobody else ever stuck to just that. We were the only company. Just, everybody broadened out to try to get more. So again, it's the same concept of a niche. Okay. But one of the policies, I guess, we've developed, it was a Deming related policy, which was fun, okay, was when we made a mistake, which we often did, whether we shipped somebody the wrong thing or we did other things, our objective was to make the, delight the customer, as he would say, make them happy we made the mistake. And that didn't matter what that cost to do that, sending them free stuff, doing whatever. And I think that's a Deming concept that we used in the apparel business aside from many, many others. Back to real estate, that's, I don't know anybody else in the Washington area that does what we do, because nobody's willing, that's the so-called trade-offs. Nobody's willing to say, I'm just going to focus on 5,000 houses.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah. It's scary.

Andy Novins: They can pick whatever they get.

Andrew Stotz: Yep. Yep. And maybe why don't we now go back to August of 1993. How did you find yourself in a four-day seminar? And I'm kind of jealous because what... My seminars I went to in '90 and '92 were two-day seminars.

Andy Novins: Really? Okay.

Andrew Stotz: And I had thought that he... I had thought by that time, maybe he was only doing two days, but then I learned that he was still doing four days. But what got you to that seminar? Where was it, and what got you there?

Andy Novins: Okay, I was going on vacation. Okay, this was in 1990. We were going to go to Cancun. And there's this, I guess they're still around, but there was a bookstore in DC on K Street called Reiter's. And it was all business and science. And I used to go there because pre-Amazon or anything like that. I think it was even pre-Borders. But I used to go there and spend an afternoon looking at books. And I found Out of the Crisis. And I brought it home and I said to my wife, by perusing through it, I didn't know anything about Deming at that point. But perusing through it, it just struck me as something I really wanted to read. And I went home and I said, I'm taking this book to Cancun, and I'm going to sit on the beach and read it. Well, I actually didn't read it till got home. But I got completely enthralled with it.

Andy Novins: And being in suburban DC, we're like eight miles from the White House. The Deming Study Group was very active in DC. Dr. Deming lived in DC. And there were just a lot of very well-known, famous speakers that would be part of our group, including Deming at one point, but I wasn't. But I think it was before I joined the group. So I read the book, joined the group, and after about three years, I had heard enough about the seminar that I wanted to go. And I went to that in Chicago. It was the first or second week of August of '93. And one of the things that I never really understood that Dr. Deming would say a lot was talking about being transformed, or the transformation that you get when you're studying his philosophies. And I always kind of said, well, that's not going to happen to me. It just was foreign to me. That third day of the seminar, I was transformed. I don't know how to describe it, but ever since then, I look at the world through his eyes and see things and think in systems and variability. And you get all that when you first get exposed to them, but you're not transformed. Somehow it all comes together. I couldn't describe it, I never thought it was, but that happened during that seminar.

Andrew Stotz: And what Dr. Deming talked about was the idea is that the person who's leading the organization has got to go through a transformation in order to truly implement this.

Andy Novins: Exactly.

Andrew Stotz: What was it like there? How many people were in the room? And what was your... You walked in knowing a bit. I walked in knowing nothing, basically. And it was just like, whoa. But I'm just curious, what were your first impressions? For those people that have never and never will have a chance to go in, give us a feeling about how it went.

Andy Novins: I don't know if I mentioned it was in Chicago.

Andrew Stotz: Yep.

Andy Novins: Okay. Which is a great city, and it was in the summer, which is often hot. But I was amazed because at that point, and I may be wrong, but I think it cost $1,000 to go. Okay. And he had 500, and I'm pretty sure that's about what it cost. And do you remember what yours was?

Andrew Stotz: Mine was about 500 people, for sure. I didn't pay for it, so Pepsi paid for it but I would think it was even more than that. But who knows? But maybe mine was a two-day, so it was less, I don't know.

Andy Novins: But it was 500 people. That's what I remember, because being a numbers person, I translate that to 500,000 for the four days. And so that kind of stuck in my mind. And he did a lot of them. And one of the things, too, that he did a lot of them, and I think, geez, he's making a lot of money doing this. He lived in a little tiny house on a street in Washington, and he worked in the basement. One of the things that happened to me after that, again, with the Deming Study Group, was his son-in-law, Bill Ratcliff, okay? Somewhere shortly after the four-day seminar, he called me and he said, I'm getting a lot of feedback, you guys at Moving Comfort are doing a lot of using Deming's theories and everything. Could I come and visit the company and you show me what you're doing? And I said, sure. I mean, any more exposure to any of the people interested in Deming at that point was fascinating to me. And so he came and he spent a good part of the day at the company. And then I'm not even sure if at the time I knew that he was Deming's son-in-law, but then we went out, his wife was Linda Deming Ratcliff, okay? And so he and Linda and my wife went out to dinner a couple of times after that. And it was fascinating to hear both of their stories about Dr. Deming. What I remember is Bill would say, we used to go over there on Sunday mornings and read the newspaper, and Dr. Deming would be down in the basement working. And he'd come up periodically and say, how are you doing, Bill? In his voice, and then go back down and work. And he constantly was focused on his work. And so those relationships just tied me into Deming forever, especially after the four-day seminar.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah. I think it was a discussion with Bill Scherkenbach when I asked him about what it was like in the basement. And Bill was telling me, I don't think we got this recorded, but Bill was telling me that somebody asked him why you have all of this stuff around you and in your office. And he said, I'm desperate. I'm absolutely desperate. And with the idea that he was on such a mission. And I just feel like when I went to the seminar, the first one was in Washington, and then the second one was in Los Angeles. I didn't know how significant he would be in my life at the time, and I didn't understand the transformation I was going through. But what I did later really come to understand is that he inspired me to have a mission. And like, why am I doing what I'm doing? It's one thing for all of us to be busy, working really hard, doing all kinds of stuff and bringing value to our clients. But for what? What's the mission? And was a huge, that's a much bigger takeaway for me now than it was then. But what I witnessed was this man who is very old, just conveying an incredible message. So, yeah.

Andy Novins: Yeah, it was, and he was... Well, DemingNEXT, if anybody is involved in that and can see a lot of the videos with Dr. Deming, especially during the years that I was interested in watching and everything else, he just had a unique way of presentation, but he did have a sense of humor. And it was a dry sense of humor, I guess, maybe going with his dry martinis.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah, tell us that story about Deming Martini.

Andy Novins: Yes. As one of the sessions at the four-day seminar ended, apparently this Deming Martini is famous or was pretty well-known at that point. So he described how he loved martinis and he acted out the process of making one. And again, he's 93 and just you could tell this is just part of his life he loved. And he, so he kept his vermouth in the freezer, okay? And it was, and so he demonstrated how he poured the gin, and then he acted out like he went into the refrigerator freezer and took out the vermouth. And then he would not open the bottle, but he would wave the bottle around the glass and then he'd put it back in the freezer, and he'd say, this is the best martini you can make. And he had a lot of stories that added a lot of spice to it.

Andrew Stotz: So when you left that seminar, what changed in the way that you were operating? And obviously you had already had awareness of the teachings, but did that inspire you to go to a different level or what did it cause?

Andy Novins: Yes, and I'm not sure at what point the so-called transformation took place in the four-day seminar. You knew that that's how you were going to think for the rest of your life. That wasn't, you were going to think in systems and variation and predicting from the system and all those things. But so I can't really remember what years we did it, but as an apparel, our company basically, we designed, manufactured through separate factories and sold women's athletic apparel to specially sporting goods stores around the country. Nordstrom's was a client, one of the bigger ones, L.L. Bean and those kinds of things. And so one of the things we implemented that was really a Deming concept was improving our shipping, the picking process, which is filling an order. And we automated that with a carousel, which brought the product right to the picker, the warehouse person, and barcodes and scanned the order, and it brought the thing right to them. It incredibly reduced our error rate in shipping. And at the time, this would have been like 19, this was '91 or somewhere early on that. And at the time, we were way ahead of other companies.

Andy Novins: Even Nike, they would get an order, they'd walk around and pick their orders. And so that was a Deming-inspired process or way of improving our system. With apparel and you're designing 100 different styles or sizes and styles and everything else, the design development group, the functional silos that, I don't know if Dr. Deming used that term, but the system that every department has to hand off is working for the next department. In apparel, it's really complicated. And that was the biggest Deming issue we would focus on. It never went away. You really had to always, because our designers would put bells and whistles into a garment. We were very high-end and it either wasn't practical price-wise or it wasn't practical in the factory or we didn't have a good source for where we were going to put it, where, what factory we were going to put it in, that type of thing. So that's where really the Caribbean Basin Trade Initiative at that point came out. That's where we had factory, up until about 1990, all our production was in the United States.

Andy Novins: After that, it got too expensive, labor, sewing labor in the United States. That's when most companies started going offshore. We did a lot in the Caribbean. And when you're manufacturing apparel, back at the beginning, you would ship, we would buy the fabric and we would ship it to the Caribbean factory that we were using and they would sew it, and put it together. And then trade agreements came out where the factories could buy the material. And essentially, instead of they being just a sewer, they would be making a finished product for us. That had huge implications on simplifying the system and transferring responsibility to the people that really needed it. But now maybe I'm getting too much into apparel, but...they haven't been doing it for 23 years.

Andrew Stotz: So let's talk about what you're doing about your application of Dr. Deming's teaching in real estate. And I know you've also brought something along to share and go through, but maybe you can just talk a little bit about how you're applying that in the real estate business.

Andy Novins: Yeah, and that's the control chart concept. And all real estate statistics are lagging indicators, whether we're talking median prices or active listings, or I guess active listings are the only one that's not a lagging indicator, but almost virtually every month's supply of inventory, all those things are lagging indicators. So they tell us as realtors what happened. And in my market here, it bottomed out after the 2008 recession in March of 2009. And until this year, it's gone straight up for 16 years. So most realtors, virtually no realtors... Well, most realtors haven't experienced a shift in the market, which is what we're going through now, where the market goes from being a buyer's or seller's market for all those years. And I'm talking about a strong seller's market. A seller's market is defined by the National Association of Realtors as any market where the months' supply is less than six months. And our supply was hovering around two to three weeks. And it's now almost two months, but the market has shifted and it's incredible how many people don't realize that.

Andy Novins: Everybody knows there's something going on, but the media takes care of that. But all the statistics we get are, again, median prices are still very high, okay? But using control charts, you can plot, for example, a couple of months of live inventory. That started going down in April, okay? I mean, that went out of the control limits in April, okay? That's telling us that something's happened. It tells us directly that the market shifted, okay? The other thing that I watch is price drops, okay? How many price drops? That went out of the control limits in, I think, June, they started out, okay? And we're looking at that weekly, and that's showing us every week, the number of price, it's so far out of the control limit right now, it's amazing. There's no... You can't... You can look at price drops, and you can look at months' supply on a graph, okay? But it doesn't tell you that the system's now out of control. But control charts do tell you that, so...

Andrew Stotz: Should we look at your control chart? Maybe that's a good time to do that.

Andy Novins: Sure, yeah. And before we do that, one of the things in real estate is seasonality, okay? And that hides a lot of problems because prices go up in the spring, down in the summer, down in the fall, up a little bit, then down. But let me bring those up and talk about them. Okay, you can see this?

Andrew Stotz: Yep, and for the listeners out there, I'll just describe. You've got a line chart up here, and a line that's going up and down, and then recently is going up a lot. And it starts in July of 2023, and it goes to June of 2025. And so why don't you take that away and help us understand what you've got here?

Andy Novins: Okay. So the control limits, the upper and lower control limit are the red lines on this. And going back to July of '23, everything was stable. And if we went back long before that, it would also have been stable.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah, and by the way, just to make it clear, it's monthly supply, or month supply, sorry, of housing.

Andy Novins: I'm sorry.

Andrew Stotz: Can you explain what it means, month supply?

Andy Novins: Yeah, month supply is the number of active listings at the end of a month divided by the average monthly sales for 12 months, the 12-month average. So it's basically saying if you've got 10 active listings and the average is two a month, that you've got a five-month supply of listings. Okay?

Andrew Stotz: And the average on this is one month supply.

Andy Novins: The average, right. And you can see where during the pandemic, we've had times where it went down to just a number of weeks, which is pretty incredible, but that's our market. So again, this chart is telling us that... Well, there's another thing, other ways that Dr. Deming would look at this. We've got several months where it's going, the month supply is just going up. So starting in December '24, you can see that the supply keeps going up. And then it went out and broke the upper control limit. So what he would say in this, looking at this chart is that up until really of March 2025, the system was in control, it was predictable, okay? And then starting in March or April 2025, it was out of control, it was not a stable market, and the market is a system.

Andrew Stotz: And it went up above the upper control limit of 1.6 roughly or 1.55. And now the highest it went up in May was about one point, almost, yeah, 1.8.

Andy Novins: 1.8, okay. And so Dr. Deming would say that number one, it's a shift in the market, number two, the market is no longer predictable. Okay? Clients don't like to hear that, but using these charts and explaining it to them, they do understand it. And in real estate, one of the most important things when markets are changing, or always actually for that matter, is managing client expectations, okay? And using Deming's theories and control charts, it makes it... And I'll get into that a little bit more in a minute, but managing their expectations becomes more of a science than scripts, which is what...

Andrew Stotz: One of the things I learned from Dr. Deming was be skeptical of data, and I know I've spent my career as a financial analyst manipulating tons of data. And every time I see something out of control like we see here, the first question I ask is, is there an error in the data? And then the next question is, okay, so what's going on out there that the chart is one thing, but can you just talk briefly about what's going on? What do you think is behind this? What's causing it? What is that shift that you're seeing?

Andy Novins: Well, if you were asking me this in 2008, I could have told you. The irresponsible lending and all kinds of other things. Today, the market is in our market more than others is impacted by uncertainty. Okay. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs. Okay. But especially in our area, the impact on federal workers job security. Okay. In our area, which is an expensive area, almost any couple that is buying a house is buying it on two incomes. And if one of those, one of the members of the couple is, works for the federal government or is a government or works for a government contractor or is affected by any, in any company that may be impacted by government cutbacks, they're not buying a house right now. They're waiting. So they don't want to buy on one income. And so they pulled out of the market. And that's, that's the biggest reason for the increase in the supply. The other is, people do want to move. People want to downsize and upsize. Well, most people have a 3% interest rate or better or slightly around there. So with the impact of low, you know, of rising interest rates and everything else, there's people that want to downsize. And if they move, they'd be paying more for their smaller house than they were for their house they're staying in. So they stay.

Andrew Stotz: What are, what are mortgage rates right now? Roughly.

Andy Novins: That's 675, 6.75. 30 year. But what's interesting on that, and I haven't done it, but it would be an interesting exercise is when I began my career as a CPA in New York, I moved down here in 1982 to be part of the company that I talked about before, the apparel company. I, when I said to her, when I had that opportunity, I said to my wife, what do you think about moving down to Washington? We lived in Westchester County, New York, and she said, well, sure, but, and at that point, I was treasurer of a bank in the New York metropolitan area, and she was willing to take the risk. It was a risky move, but she said not, but not, we can't sell our house. We have an eight and a half percent mortgage. We'll rent it, and if it doesn't work in Washington, we can always come back to it. So that eight and a half percent mortgage back in '82 was not something you got rid of, and people don't realize that the average mortgage rate in the past 50 years is eight percent. So at 6.75, it's not that bad, but it's relative to the three percent interest rates we had. It's making it tough for people to move.

Andrew Stotz: So just talking now, I just want to wrap up on the chart by saying, so once you use, you're demonstrating using a control chart in the industry of real estate, and you're discussing the fact that right now, you've got three points that have breaking out of the upper control limit, which now tells us, as you said, it's unpredictable at this point. What else, what do you take from that, and how does that drive your actions when you see this chart? How does that impact you, and in other words, how are you applying Deming's teachings once you've now done this?

Andy Novins: Great question. When you price a house to sell it, you use what we call comparable sales. When a market is going up or stable, comparable sales are a good indication of what you're probably going to price it at if it's going to go on the market soon. What realtors do is what we call a comparative market analysis, and that's comparing at least three homes to their home. There's all different ways of doing that, which is part of a Deming system too. But when you go to somebody and say, well, we got these three homes and they sold it at 800, but if you're going to put your house on the market next month, we're probably looking more like at 750. And most people would say, well, I'm not going to use that guy. This other realtor says 800 is the way to go. And using the control chart showing that the market has shifted and that those comps are no longer valid is one of the most valuable uses of control charts in real estate because, again, it's evidence that the comps aren't valid anymore.

Andy Novins: The other thing is comps represent, even if it closed yesterday, it went under contract a month ago. So the comps are just not necessarily good if the market is shifting, and this is pretty powerful evidence to a potential client that pricing is really important and you can't just use past comps. I'll go to the next chart, which is price drops. And this is something, again, our market really just shifted recently, so this is something I'm actually doing actively right now looking at. But you can see that this is weekly price drops. Okay, it started off monthly because I can't go back and get that data. But if I go back to a stable year, last year is the base. You can see that price drops were pretty stable process in the pricing system. They were...

Andrew Stotz: So what does that mean? Just so we understand, let's say the average is 25% projected monthly price drop. What does that actually mean?

Andy Novins: That's saying that every month that of the active listings on the market, 25% of them are reducing their price. That month.

Andrew Stotz: So in other words, 75% are either keeping it the same or raising it.

Andy Novins: Say that. Yes, right.

Andrew Stotz: The opposite of that. Okay.

Andy Novins: Right. And that's each month. That doesn't mean somebody didn't lower their price on that same house the month before. But it's registering the number of drops that homes on the market are doing.

Andrew Stotz: And that would mean it's like a pretty good seller's market again when only a quarter of listings need to drop their price in order to get the sale.

Andy Novins: Yes, exactly. Yep. Exactly. And you can see this...

Andrew Stotz: And let's just talk about the January 2024 to December of 2024. So for the year of 2024, what's your observation of the data?

Andy Novins: It was stable. It's not a change in the market.

Andrew Stotz: Yep. Okay. Normal variation.

Andy Novins: Yeah, normal variation. Okay. But when it starts to go up like it has, and it's even worse because what I'm using is an average for these weeks. The next week starting tomorrow will have the four-week average. They're actually quite a bit higher, the last two, than what they show here because they were averaged down. But when you see rampant price dropping, that's out of control, so to speak.

Andrew Stotz: Right. So it's gone from a mean of 25 up to 60-plus percent of monthly price drop. I'm just curious. It says on your y-axis, it says projected monthly price drop. Does that mean somebody's making some estimate on that, or what does that mean?

Andy Novins: That's because right now I'm doing it by the week.

Andrew Stotz: Okay. Ah, okay.

Andy Novins: Okay. And I'm averaging the week. And then when I get the month, it'll be like the earlier ones.

Andrew Stotz: So the most recent ones are the projected, and the other ones are the actual month.

Andy Novins: Yeah.

Andrew Stotz: Okay.

Andy Novins: And right, I'm using, I'm multiplying them times four the week. So it's right now I'm projecting what July will be, basically, the total, but it'll be up around 60%.

Andrew Stotz: And this chart corroborates the conclusions that you made in the prior chart, or are there any other additional...

Andy Novins: Yeah. And the month supply chart is more of a leading indicator of a market shift, because this is the reaction of sellers and realtors to a market they didn't anticipate properly. And so this is a much more now type of thing. And again, if I go back to a client and say, you know, all the comps are 800, but we're going to recommend 750, this is pretty convincing evidence that basically almost everybody in the market is reducing their prices.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah.

Andy Novins: And in a falling market, the worst thing you can do is chase the prices, chase it down.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah. And what this doesn't show, it shows that 60% are dropping their price. It doesn't show what the remaining 40% are. And that composition of that could just be, there could be no price increases. We don't know from this data whether that's holding the price the same or increasing it.

Andy Novins: Right. But it doesn't mean that there aren't homes in those active listings that didn't reduce their price, that reduced their price. They may have reduced their price last month. Okay. So it's really just showing the panic that's out there.

Andrew Stotz: Okay. Got it.

Andy Novins: But it's a great leading indicator from that standpoint.

Andrew Stotz: Okay. So two charts that show us the application of control charts and Deming's teachings there in real estate and making a note of the fact that these are now out of control. Interesting.

Andy Novins: Yes. And again, the most important thing you can do, I think, in real estate is accurately manage your client's expectations. Yeah. Because, and I'm going to back up for a second, that's another real benefit of having a niche practice. And again, like the competitive advantage Michael Porter concept. And for me, writing a newsletter, which gives them what we hope to be useful information for the 5,000 homes that get it. When they're ready to sell, again, I don't call them, they call me. And they call me because they trust me. They believe I know what I'm doing. And so part of a system that would be outside of what Dr. Deming talked about, but part of the system is your clients, the quality of your system is going to depend on the quality of your clients. And so having a niche, again, what I'm doing in terms of that so-called farming and the newsletter is I'm attracting clients that will trust me. Okay. That's so much a Deming concept in terms of the overall system and how it affects it. We see all the time when buyers that are buying one of our listings and they have all these problems and the other real estate agents, their buyer's agent says, I know they're crazy. I can't wait till this is over because their buyer clients aren't listening to them and they're asking for unreasonable things or whatever. So a critical part of the system in real estate is getting clients that will listen to you because theoretically we know what we're doing.

Andrew Stotz: And if we look at this chart, one of the things that some people may ask is what about forecasts? And I know I spent my career as a financial analyst in the stock market forecasting earnings. And then when I worked on my PhD for my dissertation, I decided to calculate the accuracy of analysts in earnings forecasts. And as I said, the title of my dissertation was analysts were only 25% wrong. And in other words, here is the highest qualified people to forecast the earnings of these companies and they get it wrong by 25% on average. And so for those people that say, well, what about your forecast and all that? I always say, I live on the cutting edge of history. Don't try to go too far out in the future. Just make sure you understand. And that's where this chart shows July 19th to July 25th that you could say that's pretty much, and if you get the data out the next day, that's the cutting edge of history.

Andy Novins: Yeah, yeah, exactly. And in the past, people say, well, should I wait? At this time of the year, they might say, should I wait and put the house on the market next spring? Or should we do it after Labor Day? And in the past, I would have said, wait till next spring because things were going to be better. You could... Everything was stable and rising. What these charts show, and they do require some explanation, is that the market is out of control right now. You can't predict it. And then if so, then it becomes a decision that a client makes based on what they really need. Do they want to move yet? Do they want to wait? Do they... But these control charts are showing that you can't predict. Whereas in the past, you could be pretty safe.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah. And the point of that, too, is that a control chart can't solve every problem. It tells you where things are, so you understand things a lot better. But then, how you're going to actually use that information, well, somebody may use it to say, I need to sell my house now. Somebody else may say, I'm going to wait because I think this is bad and it's going to get better later. And somebody's going to say, I'm going to sell now desperately because I think this is going to get much worse, right? That's the hard part.

Andy Novins: Yeah.

Andrew Stotz: But if you don't know what's actually happening, which the control chart gives you that information, then there's none of that. It's just, there's no basis in fact of what you're doing.

Andy Novins: Exactly. Right. They provide a window into the market that I have never seen anybody use this or talk about it.

Andrew Stotz: And do you have any more charts? Was that it?

Andy Novins: No. Yeah, I got more.

Andy Novins: Okay. Whoops. Oh, but before we get to that, okay, so this is a concept, and if I'm going too long, cut me off.

Andrew Stotz: No, no. Go ahead.

Andy Novins: So in a falling or stable market like we're in, okay, in a rising market, you pick a price, and if you're good, you're going to do well. If you do it right, they're going to bid it up. That's the way it's been for five years since COVID. Okay. Now the market is not rising. It's falling or even in a stable market. So the PDSA cycle that Deming talked about is absolutely so on target for what we're going through right now. So I'll just briefly go through this. The plan part is you price using comps or adjusted comps based on what the control charts are showing where the market is going rather than where it was. Okay. And then you put the listing on the market in the MLS. And then what we do, okay, is we study what's happening, okay? And again, the market is not in control. It's not a stable system. So we monitor and we subscribe to special services that most agents don't get. They cost money, but they give us a lot of information. We can see the number of views all over the internet that a house is getting that's on the market. And we can subscribe to another service that shows all the showings that are comparable houses in our zip code or any way we want to do it are getting. And then we use the control charts and we look at feedback and everything else.

Andrew Stotz: So do you have more charts, Andy?

Andy : I sure do. This isn't actually a chart. It's one of the core tools that Dr. Deming used. And it's what he called the PDSA cycle. And that is the most important tool that we use with the data we get from the control charts. So I'm going through an example here of pricing. And so the PDSA is plan, do, study, act. And the planning section of this process is we price using comps, like I've described. But we also use the control charts to let us adjust the comps for what's happening in the market right up to today, basically. And the do is just in real estate is just simply putting the listing in the real estate market, MLS, and listing it so people can see it. The study, though, is what's really important. And that's where a lot more data comes in. We subscribe to services where we can monitor all the views all over the Internet of our listings. And we can monitor showings that our listings are getting, which we know, but other listings. We can monitor what they're getting in terms of competitive listings, similar prices, and that type of thing.

Andy : And we also monitor what houses, if any, are going under contract since our property went on the market. And that provides what we talk. So we have to act on that data. And that's the A of the PDSA cycle. And so we use feedback loops. So just as an example, I won't necessarily go through all these. If we have a lot of views, high views, and high showings, we know the price is right. We're going to get offers. On the other hand, if we have high views and low showings, we know buyers are interested in it, they like it, but they're not ready to come and look at it. They're waiting for that price to go down, which in this market, it probably will. So we advise our clients based on the data we're getting, and then we either reprice or we don't. There's also some other things we use to monitor, but I won't go into those at this point.

Andrew Stotz: What's interesting about that is it's like every single listing is a test.

Andy : Exactly.

Andrew Stotz: That's cool.

Andy : Yeah. And that data is so important. And when you tell a client, you're getting all kinds of... You're getting... And we compare it to the other listings. We give them charts, which shows the other houses. And we say, look, you're getting twice the views of these other houses, but nobody's coming to your house, or very few are coming. And the other listings are getting less views and more showings. People think you're overpriced. And it's very convincing to a client.

Andrew Stotz: Is there one of these that you're aiming for? And if you are close to that in your listings, you're hitting the right spot? Or what are you aiming for?

Andy : High views and high showings. That's the best. Everybody's looking at it. People are coming. Okay. There's other tests down the road because traditionally if you get 16 to 18 showings and nobody makes an offer, you're still probably overpriced, but that's very unlikely. Okay.

Andrew Stotz: And is price the only factor that you can adjust here, let's say high views, high showings could be just the type of house, the location, but you don't necessarily control those things?

Andy : No, the one down near the bottom. Low views, high showings. It's ikely a niche piece of property. Not many people are looking at it, but the people that want that niche, whatever may be different, it's a unique piece of property, they'll get a lot of showings relative to their views, because most people aren't interested. But there isn't much else we can do because we spend... We pay for staging. We don't pay for it. We do it. We have our own inventory and staging. We have contractors that we've used for years to help get a house ready. So the product itself, the house, and the presentation, there's never much more we can do to make that better.

Andrew Stotz: And quality in the eyes of the customer is the best price sold quickly, I guess.

Andy : Yes. Yeah. That's right. There's a saying which not everybody agrees with in the real estate industry, but you want to make the most amount of money in the least amount of time with the least amount of hassle.

Andrew Stotz: I think that's everywhere.

Andy : That's true.

Andrew Stotz: Yes. I want that. Great.

Andy : That's what everybody wants, but some people say, well, if it's too fast, you didn't... But that's usually not true. Fast is usually good as long as it's priced right. The next chart I have is a whole other way we use control charts, and that's to evaluate our own performance, which is what this is doing. And it's using sales-to-list price ratios. In other words, what percentage of the list price was the sales? And here we're using a long base period, and I'm just going to back up for a second. In some of the two recent, the ones I did on price drops and supply of inventory, we only had a year worth of, for the base line. And normally it's better to use more than that, but those two years I used were stable, and we didn't go back further because the Fed had been raising interest rates, and that created a... That was not a stable market when they did that, so we didn't want to use that as a history.

Andy : So this is showing our performance, and you can see starting with the pandemic, we went way above the control limits a lot of times. But what you do when you're looking at or using a chart like this for your own improvement is you want to narrow the upper and lower control limits, the two red lines. The closer they get together, the less variation you have, the smaller your standard deviation. And for us, it's 0.2. And our range between what... That's normal is between 95% and 107% of the sales price. And just to how we use it and how we get better at it is we focus on pricing. We focus on improving negotiation, which is a big deal, especially in the last few years. We are always looking to improve our client base. We're always looking to improve our preparation and presentation. We think we got that pretty well down pat. And the other thing is to stay within your area of expertise, because when you go out of that, okay, if I was to work on a house out of my market, okay, I wouldn't get this kind of performance. So that's going to lead me to the next and really the final chart. And that's another group, okay? And I'm using this group because... Just to...

Andrew Stotz: Sorry, when you say another group, what do you mean?

Andy : It's not my team, no offense industry...

Andrew Stotz: So it's a competitor or it's...

Andy : This is a well-known group. It's led by two Ivy League graduates. And it's a much bigger team than ours. Their standard... And it's the same base period, 2017 to '19. Their standard deviation is three times what ours is. Their range of what they do within the control limits is 78% to 114%. And that... Why do we do this? Why do we care? It's always nice to benchmark yourself. But most of all, with groups or agents that we compete with, if these guys put a house on the market, okay, and we thought it was overpriced, or let's say we thought it was underpriced, okay, and it was competing with one of ours, we wouldn't tell our client to reduce their price to match their price, okay, because we know they probably are underpricing. In this case, we'd say let it go. Likewise, if we're working with a buyer who's buying one of their houses and we think it's overpriced, what their listing is overpriced, then we will probably make a lower offer knowing that they also know that their pricing can be way off. So understanding your clients and where they fit on these control charts is useful information.

Andrew Stotz: And I can imagine that some people, let's say, at another firm, as an example, may say, oh, I don't care about this variability because one side of the mean is more favorable than the other, so I'm just trying to get to that other side. Whereas what you're saying is I'm trying to reduce variation around the mean.

Andy : Yes, and that'll take me to this last section I have here. If we compare the two groups, what are the major differences? Number one, if it was a million-dollar listing, okay, we would probably get $43,000 more than they would based on these control charts. Most of all, the biggest difference...

Andrew Stotz: The selling price of your customer would be $43,500 more?

Andy : Well, our average selling price is a little over 100%. Their average selling price is 96%. So on average, they're getting $43,000 less on $1 million house than we are. But the most important thing in this is the consistency and the predictability of when you lower those control chart limits, you're making your performance much more predictable, and it's an important part to all of our clients. I mean, Deming had a... One of the things he used to say is quality is in the customer's eyes, not your eyes. So I can say we do all this great stuff and all that. It all boils down to what does the customer think. And when a group's working on volume, which is pretty typical in our industry, that's what we're taught, how to get more volume, how to get more volume, that's... The customer doesn't care. The client doesn't care about what kind of volume they do. What the customer cares about is service. And you can see some of the other things, consistency over time, process control and all that. I'll get out of here now and say that that's really what control charts and Deming's philosophy and the PDSA, it all focuses on quality in the customer's eyes, consistent performance, better service, and not a lot of guesswork. We're using data that other agents don't even know exists. And that's unfortunately not an exaggeration, really. I've never talked to anybody that knew about this.

Andrew Stotz: When Deming talked about quality, he often referenced the idea that you could have a quality system in place and still go out of business if you weren't looking at quality in the eyes of the customer and being completely connected to the customer. And I have a little story on this from my coffee business. Many years ago, we had a restaurant chain in Thailand that's a global chain come to us and we won the bid. And they said, we chose you over all these other suppliers for coffee and we're going to come to your factory and when we do, we're going to do an audit, we're going to ask 600 questions and if you get below 75% or whatever, you're fired. But, hey, I knew Deming and I knew all of this stuff and we cared about quality and we never had quality problems, so we thought we're in good shape. And they came out and they said, your score was 68, you're fired. You have six weeks to fix it or you won't be our supplier. Well, we learned something very quickly there, which was to them, paperwork was quality.

Andrew Stotz: And that was a quality system to them that meant that we had quality. And so we had a passion for quality, but we didn't have the paperwork system that they wanted. So luckily, when you have passion for quality, it's pretty easy to overlay a paperwork system on it, if that's what the customer required. I would hate to be in the opposite situation where you go and do like many people when they go and get certified or ISO or whatever and they build a paperwork system without that commitment to quality. Now, that's a disaster. But the point is that we had to realize that in order for us to satisfy that customer's needs, we had to appeal to quality as they saw it. And so we've got to always keep the customer in mind as we're working on our quality.

Andy : I got another story. My wife reminded me today that sometimes in probably early '80s, maybe mid '80s at the latest, I looked up in the... I wanted to find a statistician and I looked him up in the yellow pages, which a lot of the listeners may not know what that is. And I wanted to... What I wanted to do was find a way to improve, optimize our inventory and try to approach just-in-time inventory because we had factories all over the place and we were getting stuff in. And we never did it. And I imagine with Dr. Deming, we could have done it, but we never did it because exactly the quality's in the customer's eyes. We were shipping to specialty restock stores primarily, and if we couldn't stock their shelves, okay, they went somewhere else. Didn't matter how much they liked us, they had to have those shelves full. So we decided it wasn't worth the risk of just-in-time and optimizing our inventory at the expense of having maybe too much inventory, but satisfying our customers. And it's just so true.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah. Yeah. In the story that I told, that particular chain never ran out of product and certainly never ran out of coffee. And I know myself, being a customer of that chain, never in my life did I walk in there and they ran out of a particular product. And they made that very clear. That's quality to us is that our supply chains are never broken. And for 16 years, we never broke their supply chains. It was never the case. So in the eyes of the customer, well, on behalf of everyone at the Deming Institute, I want to thank you again for this discussions and for listeners, remember to go to Deming.org to continue your journey. But I thought I would leave the closing comments to you to maybe wrap up and give the audience what you think should be their main takeaway from this discussion.

Andy : I think probably the main takeaway would be that Dr. Deming's philosophy, the Profound Knowledge, everything he taught is as relevant to real estate, okay, pricing, probably most markets as it is to a factory or production or anything like that. I think that it took me a while, after I became a realtor, it took me a while to realize, wow, all these things we can use. And we have more data to play with than anybody. So that's a good takeaway for anybody, especially realtors.

Andrew Stotz: Yeah, I think, and I'll just add on, I enjoyed the conversation because I love Michael Porter's stuff and talking about figuring out where's your niche and trying to bring a differentiated offering to the market. And that differentiated offering could be based on what I like to say from my study and teaching of corporate strategy is there's kind of two main corporate strategies. One I would say is the type that engineers build, which is an operational corporate strategy. And another one is a differentiating strategy that a sales type of person would build, which is about the interaction with sales, with the product and all of that. And so with Dr. Deming, one of the benefits we get is the process part of our business can just be improved forever. And then we can overlay that with whatever we want from what we bring to the market. And I think you've given us an example of how you can apply Deming's principles to the process of your business and do that in a niche area or an area that you've defined and dominate. And so I love that.

Andy : Yeah, and one of the things, just a last thought, is something you and I had talked about, is you don't have to have a PhD in physics or you don't have to get a doctorate in something to understand Deming. And he even says it in his book. You don't have to be an expert in any of it. You just have to understand it. And that's the beauty of it. Anybody can do what I'm doing with just nowhere near the effort you'd have to do if you were going to be a physicist or something else like that. And that's something people can take away.

Andrew Stotz: And on that hopeful note, this is your host, Andrew Stotz, and I'm going to leave you with one of my favorite quotes from Dr. Deming. I always repeat it because it's such a great quote, and that is, "people are entitled to joy in work."