2min chapter

80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

The Sleeping Beauty Problem

Anthropics studies how we should reason and update our beliefs when we get information about our position within a particular group or set of observers. Here's the basic setup of the sleeping beauty problem: On Sunday, she is going to be put to sleep, and a fair coin is then going to be tossed. If the coin comes up heads, she’s going to be awakened and interviewed on Monday, and then the experiment will end. But if the coin comes down tails, Sleeping Beauty doesn't know what day it is during each Awakening. The memory of the Monday Awakening is always erased, so she can't remember it during the Tuesday Awakening. And then after the Monday and the Tuesday

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