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200 | Solo: The Philosophy of the Multiverse

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

What Is Your Credence That the Coin Comes Up Heads?

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There's a 50 fifthy chan of being heads or tails. If the coin comes up heads then you put her to sleep on monday, on sunday, sorry, on mONDAY. You wake her up again on tuesday, and you ask her the question again. And it's a fair coin, so it's what you would ordinarily assign 50 50 credence to,. But if the coin came up tails, then you wake her up m Monday, you ask her that question, and then you put she back to sleep - this is why you never get approval to do this in rea world. In either case, and you let her live her life.

The 200th episode of Mindscape! Thanks to everyone for sticking around for this long. To celebrate, a solo episode discussing a set of issues naturally arising at the intersection of philosophy and physics: how to think about probabilities and expectations in a multiverse. Here I am more about explaining the issues than offering correct answers, although I try to do a bit of that as well.

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References:

Guth, “Inflation and Eternal Inflation“
Weinberg, “Living In the Multiverse“
Susskind, “The Anthropic Landscape of String Theory“
Carroll, Johnson, and Randall, “Dynamical Compactification from De Sitter Space“
Sebens and Carroll, “Self-Locating Uncertainty and the Origin of Probability in Everettian Quantum Mechanics“
Wald, “Asymptotic behavior of homogeneous cosmological models in the presence of a positive cosmological constant“
Gibbons and Hawking, “Cosmological Event Horizons, Thermodynamics, and Particle Creation“
Carroll and Chatwin-Davies, “Cosmic Equilibration: A Holographic No-Hair Theorem from the Generalized Second Law“
Dyson, Kleban, and Susskind, “Disturbing Implications of a Cosmological Constant“
Albrecht and Sorbo, “Can the Universe Afford Inflation?“
Boddy, Carroll, and Pollack, “De Sitter Space Without Dynamical Quantum Fluctuations“
Carroll, “Why Boltzmann Brains Are Bad“
Aguirre, Carroll, and Johnson, “Out of Equilibrium: Understanding Cosmological Evolution to Lower-Entropy States“
Carroll, “Beyond Falsifiabiliy: Normal Science in a Multiverse“
Carter and McCrea, “The Anthropic Principle and its Implications for Biological Evolution“
Leslie, “Doomsday Revisited“
Gott, “Implications of the Copernican Principle for Our Future Prospects“
Bostrom, Anthropic Bias
Vilenkin, “The Principle of Mediocrity“
Olum, “Conflict Between Anthropic Reasoning and Observation“
Elga, “Self-Locating Belief and the Sleeping Beauty Problem“
Lewis, “Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga“
Hartle and Srednicki, “Are We Typical?“
Hartle and Srednicki, “Science in a Very Large Universe“
Neal, “Puzzles of Anthropic Reasoning Resolved Using Fully Non-Indexical Conditioning“

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