Smoot‑Hawley and Historical Parallels

Chuck Todd sounds the alarm on how Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs and economic coercion could unintentionally push the U.S. and the world toward open conflict, drawing stark parallels to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs and the dangerous bloc-based thinking that preceded World War II. As Trump threatens NATO unity, wages economic war with Europe, and even uses tariffs as leverage in a pressure campaign over Greenland, the result isn’t strength but instability—risking retaliation, potentially weakening the dollar’s reserve status, and handing strategic advantages to China and Russia. Chuck argues that while Trump may not be trying to start a war, his isolationist instincts, economic bullying, and disregard for democratic norms are dismantling the postwar order America built and benefited from, creating a far more dangerous world. The episode also turns inward, examining Trump’s endorsement politics and fixation on retribution, even at the cost of GOP viability, as Senate Republicans quietly weigh whether stopping this madness—or walking away—is their last remaining option.

Mechele Dickerson, professor at the University of Texas School of Law & author of the new book “The Middle Class New Deal” joins Chuck Todd to make the case that rebuilding the American middle class requires something bold and familiar. Drawing on history, Dickerson explains how the original New Deal didn’t just regulate markets but actively created the first stable American middle class, a reminder that free markets alone don’t guarantee broad prosperity. As today’s economy shifts risk onto workers through independent contracting, weakened unions, and employer-based benefits that no longer fit modern labor markets, she argues that financial security—not wealth—is what most Americans are actually chasing, and it’s essential for economic and democratic stability.

The conversation digs into healthcare, education, and labor power as the pillars of a functioning middle class, from why employer-based health insurance is a historical accident to how government-guaranteed healthcare could actually relieve businesses, and why underused public schools and outdated calendars are weakening the future workforce. Dickerson warns that the erosion of unions, the weaponization of cultural divisions, and rising economic nihilism—especially among younger Americans—mirror dangerous Gilded Age dynamics, where extreme inequality hollowed out democracy. The takeaway is stark but hopeful: upward mobility is deeply American, but without intentional policy choices that put workers and families first, an eroding middle class can become fertile ground for political instability and authoritarianism.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the evolving public perception of Muhammed Ali, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and preview the college football national championship between Indiana and his beloved Miami Hurricanes.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 Could Trump’s tariffs accidentally stumble the U.S. into a war?

03:45 Bad economic policy could drive the world into war

04:30 Destroying NATO & economic war w/ Europe will create GOP defections

05:15 What Trump is doing is incredibly alarming

05:45 When tariffs are used as leverage, they can create security problems

06:15 Smoot-Hawley tariffs created lasting damage

07:30 Retaliation followed after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs

08:00 Smoot-Hawley didn’t cause WW2, but had a huge impact in creating it

09:00 When the world starts thinking in blocs, wars become more likely

10:00 In blocs, countries start prioritizing resource security

10:30 Trump is using tariffs as leverage for economic bullying to acquire Greenland

11:15 Macron calls for EU use of an anti-coercion law against the U.S.

12:15 Trump’s Greenland posture threatens trade with Europe

12:45 Republicans in the senate need to stop this madness

13:30 We’re risking the dollar as the world’s reserve currency

14:30 Canada has struck trade agreements with China in response to Trump

15:15 China will gain increased leverage in North America

16:30 Trade disputes risk becoming security grievances

17:15 Trump is risking stumbling the U.S. into a war

18:00 The world is more dangerous now than any time since WW2

19:00 Americans are taking a safe and stable world for granted

19:30 Trump has created the dream scenario for the Chinese & Russians

20:15 The world order America built & benefitted from is being dismantled

20:45 Trump’s actions, if not stopped…could set us back generations

22:00 Trump has proven he doesn’t care about democracy in Venezuela

23:30 When the biggest country goes isolationist, everyone else does too

24:15 Trump isn’t trying to get us into war, but his actions are taking us closer to one

27:30 Trump endorses against Bill Cassidy despite Cassidy’s deference

29:00 Cassidy may consider retirement after reviewing polling in Louisiana

30:30 Cassidy could have a shot at winning as an independent

33:30 Trump cares about retribution more than viability of the GOP

41:15 Mechele Dickerson joins the Chuck ToddCast

42:45 Both the left & right can learn from “The Middle Class New Deal”

44:15 What motivated you to put these ideas under a “New Deal” framework

45:15 The New Deal created the first American middle class

46:15 Free market economies don’t automatically create a middle class

47:45 Socialism & interfering with free markets created the middle class

48:15 A stable middle class is critical for stability

49:00 The uber wealthy can only consume so much & don’t drive spending

50:15 People struggling don’t want to be wealthy, just financially secure

52:00 Independent contractors don’t get same benefits as employees

53:30 Retirement security has been shifted from employers to employees

55:00 Big companies with lots of contractors have a ton of political leverage

56:15 Amazon’s delivery providers aren’t set up to have employees

58:15 CEO’s of big companies hate the cost of healthcare

59:45 Business could support a system where they aren’t responsible for healthcare

1:01:00 Employer based healthcare was born out of World War 2 wage controls

1:02:15 Government guaranteed health insurance has many upsides

1:04:30 The debate around government guaranteed education has stalled

1:05:15 What steps could be taken to make progress in public education?

1:06:30 In rural areas there is no “school choice”, just home school

1:07:15 Public school facilities are underutilized

1:07:45 Public school calendar revolves around an agrarian calendar

1:09:00 Without good public education, we’ll have a poor labor force

1:11:00 Schools should add a voluntary summer trimester

1:12:45 Workers will only get equal treatment through collective bargaining

1:13:15 How do you bring back labor unions?

1:14:30 Middle & lower class have suffered since labor unions were gutted

1:15:15 Union culture is merged with corporate culture in Europe

1:16:30 Race & ethnicity have been used as wedges to advance a class argument

1:18:30 The entire middle class is suffering economically

1:20:15 How do you prioritize anti-poverty programs to revive the middle class?

1:21:15 Upward mobility is wired into the DNA of Americans

1:22:45 Billionaires aren’t incentivized to create a healthy middle class

1:23:45 There are parallels between the current moment & the Gilded Age

1:24:45 Should corporations build communities the way Hershey did?

1:26:45 Politicians have to help constituents be ok, not just tell them they’re ok

1:27:15 2016 election of Trump was the white middle class primal scream

1:28:15 An eroding middle class can drive societies into autocracy

1:29:15 Trump administration keeps having “let them eat cake” moments

1:30:15 Middle class support tax cuts for rich, thinking they’ll become rich

1:31:00 Younger Americans suffer from a sense of economic nihilism

1:31:45 Bill Clinton’s strength was understanding middle class, he came from it

1:32:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Mechele Dickerson
1:33:15 ToddCast Time Machine - January 22nd, 1964
1:33:45 Cassius Clay announces conversion to Islam & name change
1:34:45 Heavyweight champion of the world carried huge symbolic weight
1:35:30 Muhammed Ali challenged the power structures
1:36:15 Ali exposed unspoken rule - You have to be deferential & assimilate
1:37:00 Press treated Ali as a problem to be managed
1:37:45 Ali refusing to be drafted turned him into a villain
1:38:30 Over time, Ali became vindicated by the public
1:39:30 Ali carried conviction at great personal cost
1:40:30 America changed its view of Ali, & speaks to America’s evolution
1:41:30 Ask Chuck
1:41:45 Thanks for the book recommendation for “The Barn”
1:42:45 Could any Republicans defect to hand over control of the House?
1:47:45 Packers/Bears rivalry goes way beyond football
1:49:15 Indiana vs. Miami National Championship thoughts

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