
Bayes Blast 6 – The Parable of the King and the Random Process
The Bayesian Conspiracy
The Importance of Careful Planning
"This is a decision problem, not a forecasting problem," he says. "No case is the right choice to just average all of the models together" Knowing betting odds and knowing what to actually plan for are really two different problems. You can't accurately predict when something will happen even if you're super duper mathematically sophisticated.
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