Intro

One of the prevailing narratives that's emerged following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolás Maduro is that this is a major setback for China. Some analysts have called it a "strategic failure" on Beijing's part, while others have described it as "reality check" for China's role as a "global player."

But China's ability to influence events in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America is extremely limited, so the assessment that what happened in Caracas was a blow to Beijing may also be overstated.

Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric from Panama City to discuss whether Maduro's capture presents new risks or opportunities for China.

📌 Topics covered include:

• China's response to the U.S. detention of Nicolás Maduro
• Why Venezuela matters to China: oil, loans, and exposure
• Why Venezuela is not a Taiwan precedent
• The U.S. "Our Hemisphere" doctrine and spheres of influence
• China's special envoy visit to Caracas
• Short-term setbacks vs. long-term gains for China
• Electoral pushback against China in Latin America
• Panama tensions over ports and Chinese-linked infrastructure
• Why Latin America cannot quickly decouple from China
• Military force vs. economic leverage in U.S.–China rivalry

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: Q&A: Maduro's Fall Tests China's Influence in Washington's Backyard by Alonso Illueca
• The China-Global South Project: U.S. Strike in Venezuela Intensifies Chinese Media Debate Over Taiwan by Han Zhen

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