The Outright Yield Move in the 10 Year

The 10-year yield has broken out above that downtrend, but it's still below the 52 week highs here. Break evens have moved up, particularly the five year break evens have move up about 15 bits over the last couple of weeks. I don't think its rocket science to say that inflation might rise a little from here, partially because the peak is now behind us year over year and partially because if you watch the commodity complex at all, it would make sense that we see a little uptick in inflation. The likelihood in my head that rates come down rather than go up is higher. One of us will be right. One of them will be wrong, right? I'm