The Difficulty of Ending Self-Landing in Fed Tightening Cycles

David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication. 

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly

05:44 - What has become of the recession?

08:38 - Are we missing an accident?

11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?

13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?

14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?

17:15 - What happened to the bond market?

19:31 - High debt and high deficit - a new normal?

21:48 - Kelly's outlook for the next decade

23:42 - Inflation in the U.S.

27:29 - A new equilibrium

30:14 - Discussing inflation on a global scale

33:35 - The state of the asset allocation environment

35:37 - Should you look beyond the 60/40 portfolio?

39:04 - The magnificent seven

40:50 - A political mess

44:51 - How will Artificial Intelligence impact the economy?

47:55 - Managing the labour shortage

50:13 - An all-time high misery

51:36 - A discontent with the economy

53:50 - An outlook of the political landscape

56:14 - How does the shifting demographics impact the economy?

57:57 - Is an aging population disinflationary?

59:07 - Advice for investors

01:01:34 - Thanks for listening

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