5min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

Liquidity Has Fallen Off A Cliff | Joseph Wang & Michael Howell

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

Is the Fed Funds Rate a Tail Risk?

Bond investors look at a german ten year bund in the same way they look at a 10 year treasury yield. They just hedge the f x risk, or a ten, a ten year japanese government bond. So if the yield on the bund goes from zero to three, then the ten year treasury probably go from two to five and that's what we're seeing now. The collapsing term premier is all about a changing risk appetite. And it's saying that bond investors do not want to take risk. We used to think that a flat, yieled curve with a big belly around the middle, around the mid duration years, was the worst outlook, a much worse than

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