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SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas

Top Traders Unplugged

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The Importance of Expected Returns

In an extreme example, there's no predictability in a trend-following strategy. The way correlations operate is by demeaning if you like the variables. So yes, possibly over the longer term, the serial correlation might not be statistically strong. But there is this alpha component that somehow we should have to incorporate into the thought process and secondly, the conditional alpha or the conditional mean.

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