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12 Things Everyone Got Wrong About Inflation

The Compound and Friends

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The Long and Variable Lags in the Modern Economy

In the 1970s, when inflation was persistent and home mortgages were double digit, it was fair to assume it may have taken as long as 18 months for FOMC policy to be felt. We probably shouldn't be experiencing a year and a half lag in the modern economy,. Can you say more? Sure. So by that metric, everything is transitory. But this is you. A once in a century pandemic with an unprecedented global lockdown simply took much longer to one wine than expected. There was literally no modern analog or comparison.

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