The Metaculous Market: Will Russia Control Ukraine?

Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR or Crimea on January the 1st, 2024? I was asked why journalists don't cite prediction markets more often. A new paper says there is a room temperature superconductor, but experts are skeptical and the forecasting engine says there is only a 10 percent chance it will replicate. Do any journalists have an opinion on this? This is an audio version of astralcrotex10, Scott Alexander's substack. If you like it, you can subscribe at astralcotex10.substack.com.