Let's say you didn't know anything except somebody who makes pills has made one and they say we think it'll work. Now what are the odds that the pill works? What are your new odds? Went from 50-50 when you literally knew nothing to 60-40 now. A whole randomized controlled trial where they did everything right on the surface is still a coin flip. Half of all studies turned out not to be reproducible, meaning they were not valid.

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