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278. “Big Historian” David Christian on Time, the Near and Far Future, Transhumanism, Interstellar Migrations, the Fate of Our Species, and the End of Time

The Michael Shermer Show

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Is There a 50 % Chance of Rain?

Tetlock: Super forecasters are basian in their thinking. They they put probability s and statistical numbers on different things, and outcomes is never black and white,. No, no, there's like a 67 % chance that a pootin will invade ukrane. He says people have a hard time getting that the 50% chance ofraiing is wi omting.

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