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Nothing Destroys Inflation Like a Recession | Darius Dale
Forward Guidance
The Long-Term Inflation Outlook
Long-term inflation expectations are breaking out of a range, particularly in Europe. This indicates fears that we would enter not just a cyclical period of inflation, but long-term secular inflation which is anathema to bond market. The average investor can go somewhere between like the 1940s or 1970s to something that maybe looks more like kind of the late 60s or the mid 2000s. We built a model here at 42 macro, caught our secular inflation model to dynamic factor model that all have a high high co-integration or correlation with inflation over multiple decades.
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