Why FAI fall doesn't equal immediate GDP collapse

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.

First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:

• The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systems
• Xi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behavior
• China’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkit

The gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China and Japan – and why both sides are unlikely to climb down.

Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to discuss:

• The recent, and curious, drop-off in fixed asset investment (FAI) in China, why it’s happening, and what it means for the wider macro-economic growth trajectory heading into 2026

Fair warning: This one gets pretty wonky!