Is There More Volatility in the First Half of the Year Than the Second Half?

My guest today is K.C. Hamann, founder of AQIS LLC.

K.C. is a Warren Buffett disciple and spent his first decade in the industry working as an analyst at discretionary, deep value long/short equity hedge funds. Which probably makes him sound like an odd guest for a podcast all about quantitative investing.

K.C.’s experiences, however, lead him to identify a number of biases that he believes pollute the stock picking skills of discretionary analysts. And thinking of a hedge fund as a system whose first goal is survival, he believes that these biases are durable.

For K.C., 13F filings are prospect theory in action. By modeling both the universal and idiosyncratic biases of a manager, K.C. seeks to better identify cases of true conviction which often do not correspond to position size. And it is in these high conviction ideas that K.C. believes are the best opportunities to generate excess returns.

I hope you enjoy my conversation with K.C. Hamann.