You Don't Need a Crystal Ball
Hidden Brain
00:00
The Most Distinctive Attribute of the Super Forecasters
Super forecasters tend to gather information and update their beliefs in a very particular way. Distinguishing more degrees of maybe is an important skill. If you don't up your forecast reasonably frequently, you're going to fall out af phase with events. Phil tatlock points to aaron brown, the chief risko of the hedge fond car.
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