The Most Distinctive Attribute of the Super Forecasters

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Super forecasters tend to gather information and update their beliefs in a very particular way. Distinguishing more degrees of maybe is an important skill. If you don't up your forecast reasonably frequently, you're going to fall out af phase with events. Phil tatlock points to aaron brown, the chief risko of the hedge fond car.

When disaster strikes — from the explosion of a space shuttle to the spread of a deadly virus — we want to know whether we could have avoided catastrophe. Did anyone speak up with concerns about the situation? And if so, why didn’t someone listen? This week, we revisit a favorite episode about the psychology of warnings, and how we can all become better at predicting the future.

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