#52 – Michael Aird on how to do Impact-Driven Research
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The Importance of Independent Impressions
i'm imagining for instance a guess how many jelly beans there are in the jar competition. i all kind of want to speak to as many people as possible who are also making guesses if everyone else is doing that then there is some risk of a cascade like thing where one over confident person just is sure it's like five hundred and thirteen jelly beans and everyone inherits that, so you get like a biased overall guess. being transparent about what your assumptions and stuff are is really important because you are aware that there's like a high like probability that you're like probably wrong on something really important. We should expect we're super often wrong that that doesYeah i think increase the case of reason transparency
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