Paul Ashworth: ‘Forecasting Is Difficult at the Best of Times, and This Is not the Best of Times’
The Long View
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Consumer Sentiment: Trends and Implications
This chapter explores fluctuations in consumer sentiment, particularly through the lens of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, highlighting its recent decline and implications for inflation expectations. It emphasizes the importance of hard economic data over softer indicators while analyzing the risks of inflation versus recession in the current economic landscape. The chapter also addresses the complexities of Federal Reserve governance and the potential consequences of changing leadership amid ongoing inflationary concerns.
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