Speaker 2
back with Risky Business co-host Nate Silver. So this is a strange question, but if you were to send me off to get myself into the worst expected value, the most negative expected value situation available in gambling markets, where would you send me?
Speaker 1
I mean, the state lottery is the lowest player
Speaker 2
payout percentage. In West Virginia, it's something like the government keeps
Speaker 1
80% of the money. And of course, it's a very poor
Speaker 2
state. So play the lot lottery would be for lottery what comes then what comes after that horse racing is generally horse race is horse racing worse than betting parlays and with draft kings uh
Speaker 1
so the parlays aren't i mean the parlays are weird because like the way they do the accounting gets slightly strange um but yeah horse racing they take like was it like 15 or 20 percent depending on the state um and then and by the way we're going in inverse order of like the average net income of the people who do these types of gambling right so then you get to slot machines which is 10 or 11 percent um you know broulette is five percent baccarat craps uh blackjack is one-ish percent depending on the rules video poker is if you're playing right is very low like 0.5 but video poker strategy is not always very intuitive um right and then sports betting and poker poker we can actually make money uh if you're a skilled better
Speaker 2
um right if you're if you're an unskilled better i mean the shorthand version of it um if you're skilled better you're not allowed to bet at draft kings yeah one
Speaker 1
of the things the the sports betting houses i talked to you would tell you is that like actually most bettors are worse than average right if you just threw darts at a dartboard at nfl point spreads or something you'd lose four and a half percent but most players lose like five percent instead right um shohei otani's degenerate gambling uh interpreter friend like have these horribly large losses partly because uh partly because um he had these parlays
Speaker 2
in the way they're accounted for but also because like what so so do you think...
