Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high.
Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook
(09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions
(13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023
(20:33) Curve Ad
(21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle?
(29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish
(31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance?
(36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions
(47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect
(49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's
(56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening
(01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023
(01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
