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Scott Willis: Commodity Investing 101

Value Hive Podcast

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The Commodity Cycle in Three Parts

The commodity cycle is broken into three parts: plateau recovery, expansion and peak. The best returns come from buying the most expensive producer with the most expensive costs in the recovery phase as long as they're not going to go bankrupt. That's when people who don't know energy very well just hear about it on the nightly news start buying companies right as you get a price crash. But that's a risky proposition; you have to understand the company well.

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