The Illusion of Predictability

We underestimate the role of randomness in just about everything. We often have the mistaken impression that a strategy is an excellent strategy, or an entrepreneur is a person endowed with unique vision. Nassim Taleb believes that the world is much more random than we think.

Skills count, obviously. But they count much less in highly random environments like trading, than they do in the predictable ones, like dentistry.

Fooled By Randomness shows us how to recognise and work with randomness and luck, which is involved in everything you do. In doing so you can humble yourself, turn down your assumptions about your abilities, and have a more accurate view of how the world IS, not how you think it should be.

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