83: The “Catalyst” That Could Cause The Economy to Fall w/Ben Miller
On The Market
I Love Scenario Modeling
Ben Miller is CEO of Fundrise. He says that thinking probabilistically is like the only way to be a good investor. "I just think like it's such a wise way to start thinking, especially in this type of volatile economy"
The 2023 economy doesn’t fit what the forecasters were predicting. Inflation was up, but now it’s coming back down, interest rates keep rising, but homebuyer demand is coming back? As if there wasn’t enough contradictory data, employment is holding steady while we should be in a recession. What’s really happening behind the scenes, and how can you use economic headwinds to build wealth faster while everyone else braces for an impact that may never come?
We’re back with Fundrise CEO Ben Miller to discuss the three economic scenarios EVERY investor should plan for in 2023. Ben has learned something new about the economy (and himself) during every past crash. In the 90s, when real estate took a hit, young Ben was too carefree to be concerned. Then, when 2008 came around, Ben was left with scars from the market crash carnage. Now, after the 2020 flash crash and into a potential 2023 market crash, Ben knows better and is making bets that’ll make him, his company, and his investors very wealthy.
Ben thinks it’s a mistake that most investors simply put one scenario forward when investing. He tells tales of some of the greatest investors using basic scenario planning to make a killing during any economy. In this episode, he’ll run through exactly how you can do this and why thinking in bets may be one of the best moves you can ever make. So, even if a housing market crash does come, you’ll be prepared not just to survive but thrive.
In This Episode We Cover
Why we aren’t in a recession yet and the contradictory crash indicators
Scenario planning 101 and the three types of outcomes EVERY investor should plan for
Thinking in bets and why a “black swan event” is much closer than most people think
What could lead to an economic recession and why it’s getting impossible to predict one
The best asset classes to invest in during 2023 and why institutional investors are taking big bets on debt
Why base hit real estate deals will make you rich, but home run potential should always be taken advantage of
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums
Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel
On the Market 33 with Ben on Build-to-Rent
On the Market 65 with Ben on Deleveraging
On the Market 76 with NFL Panel
Books Mentioned in the Show
The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel
The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz
Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Nicholas Taleb
Connect with Ben:
Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-83
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