The Curious Quant cover image

EP20: Prof Rob Hyndman: Forecasting COVID, time-series, and why causality doesnt matter as much as you think.

The Curious Quant

00:00

How Do You Measure the Accuracy of a Probabilistic Forecast?

The probability distributions tend to be extremely skewed and the hard part actually is estimating the sort of the upper tail. So how do you measure the accuracy of a probabilistic forecast? We use CRPS the continuous rank probability scores for all of the component models to see which ones are doing best, we run that retrospectively they're measuring both how it's calibrated and how sharp it is so sharpness has had narrow the distribution.

Transcript
Play full episode

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
App store bannerPlay store banner
Get the app