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All Eyes On Inflation: "A Pause Is Not A Pivot" | Weekly Round Up

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Working Age Population Growth and Interest Rates Are Perfectly Correlative

Working age population growth and interest rates are perfectly correlated. Working age population growth over the next 20 years is going to trough at close to zero. So absent that, we're going to have sub 2% GDP growth for a long time. The reason you're not going to see interest rates continue up is 65 to 85 year old people. They buy bonds. And so you won't have to raise rates to attract buyers because everybody is going to be cashing out. But I don't think anyone can really tell with any certainty yet whether or not this will happen.

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