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The Importance of Normalization of Interest Rates
If central banks start trying to normalize interest rates, and if that inflation cycle is not checked, we will get higher and more volatile inflation. I think eventually you get this existential battle between markets wanting to price in much higher interest rates,. But at some point, I think the central bank is going to say we need higher interest rates. It's kind of a conventional capitalist recession where the central policy makers say we need to increase the cost of capital materially. The policymakers are eventually convinced they need to normalize the cost ofCapital notwithstanding. This is the scenario that I think is likely - it's my positive case short term, worst case long term.