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Who could win the 2026 Nobel Prizes? From the science behind Ozempic to quantum interference and droplets inside living cells, Lester Nare and Krishna Choudhary make their picks for Medicine, Physics and Chemistry, and explain the discoveries behind them.

In Episode 60 of From First Principles, we explore seven research areas with a case for Nobel recognition: GLP-1, optogenetics, optical coherence tomography, the Aharonov–Bohm effect, atomic force microscopy, biomolecular condensates and Buchwald–Hartwig coupling. We also discuss Michael Berry’s geometric phase and the awkward question of how a prize limited to three people recognizes discoveries built by larger teams.

These are our predictions, recorded before the 2026 announcements. Medicine, Physics and Chemistry will be announced October 5–7. Which discovery, and which researchers, would you pick? Tell us in the comments, then join us for our Nobel week breakdowns.

CHAPTERS

00:00 The science that could win a Nobel Prize

00:57 Hello Internet: our 2026 predictions

02:03 Medicine: GLP-1 and the science behind Ozempic

07:41 Medicine: optogenetics and controlling neurons with light

13:16 Medicine: optical coherence tomography

16:28 Golden Goose Awards and FFP updates

18:39 Physics: the Aharonov–Bohm effect and geometric phase

27:37 Physics: atomic force microscopy

32:04 Chemistry: biomolecular condensates

36:36 Chemistry: Buchwald–Hartwig coupling

38:42 Your predictions and our Nobel week plans

RESEARCH & FURTHER READING

Foundational papers and background for the discoveries discussed:

GLP-1: Mojsov, Weir & Habener (1987)

https://doi.org/10.1172/JCI112855

Optogenetics: Boyden et al. (2005)

https://doi.org/10.1038/nn1525

Optical coherence tomography: Huang et al. (1991)

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1957169

Aharonov–Bohm effect (1959)

https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRev.115.485

Berry’s geometric phase (1984)

https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1984.0023

Atomic force microscopy: Binnig, Quate & Gerber (1986)

https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.56.930

Biomolecular condensates: Brangwynne et al. (2009); Li et al. (2012)

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172046

https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10879

Buchwald–Hartwig coupling: Paul et al. (1994); Guram et al. (1995)

https://doi.org/10.1021/ja00092a058

https://doi.org/10.1002/anie.199513481

Official Nobel announcement schedule:

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/about/prize-announcement-dates/

EDITORIAL NOTES

19:30 David Bohm later held a professorship at Birkbeck, University of London (1961–1987); he did not spend the rest of his career in Brazil.

33:23 The ribosome-producing compartment discussed is the nucleolus, not the nucleosome. These corrections also appear on screen.

WATCH & EXPLORE

YouTube: https://youtu.be/MgOpbh5VUGE

Episode page and research library: https://ffppod.com/episodes/ep60

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