The Power of Expected Value

Dr. Moore: There are some circumstances in which most people will be incorrect in assessing their confidence, like my students who all think they're more honest than their classmates. And then there are other circumstances in which we're all prone to underconfidence. Being over confident can lead you to make errors of commission where you take action that afterwards you think, oh, I wish I hadn't done that. On the other hand, being under confidently is an invitation to bullseye and figure out what you'll be successful at.