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Is There a Slowdown in the Labor Market?
Timothy Stanley: I'm expecting a 25 basis point rate hike at the February meeting. And then beyond that, getting to the Fed's current terminal rate involves rate hikes of that magnitude in March and May as well. He says if inflation numbers are sticky on the downside here, it's going to be much more problematic for the Fed to continue raising rates. The interesting question is whether firming we're going to see in this data overrides any softening we're seeing in labor markets right now.