4min chapter

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network cover image

TIP478: Market Cycle Masterclass w/ David Stein

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

CHAPTER

The Long Term Death Cycle

David Frum: Redelio has this framework of what he calls the short term death cycle, which happens every five eight years. He says it's incredibly difficult to invest based on a long term debt cycle because well, our time frame is not 75 years. And when you have such very long cycles, it doesn't end on one year. It could be plus or minus 10 years to where it actually ends,. That's why our approach is to look at where are we now? Yeah, we're at very high debt levels. But has something changed to where deleveraging has taken place? Or the behavior of businesses or household is changing?"

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