Speaker 3
Nathan, you teach courses in innovation and technology strategy at INSEAD. In particular, you are directing the leading digital transformation and innovation program and innovation in the age of disruption program. Innovation and technology are invariably accompanied by uncertainty. In the age of AI, chat, GPT and other emerging technologies, how can we best navigate technological uncertainty?
Speaker 1
Well, it's interesting you mentioned all these technologies, right? Because sometimes people say to us, oh, your book is so timely. How did you know? And I'll tell you how we knew because it's a long-term trend of uncertainty increasing. It's not that we had some great timing. I would predict that uncertainty will continue and that it will continue to grow. And that can feel very disarming and frightening if you don't have tools. But it's interesting to ask why? What are the sources of this uncertainty? And for me, the biggest source, there are many. I want to acknowledge that. But the biggest source is actually technological change. The technology lowers the barriers to create, transact, interact. And so it means that more is possible than ever before and more people can participate in that activity of creation than ever before. And so on the one hand, it might look like, oh, my gosh, the waves are so choppy, things are changing so fast, people are introducing new things. But I would encourage people to remember that people are introducing new things. I mean, if you look at what it takes to create a new venture today, whether you're doing hardware or software, it's radically different. Back in my days when I was at Stanford, I remember going to Google and them showing me with great pride their big innovation, which was at that time, if you wanted to say start a new startup, you had to go raise money to buy computers. And in Google's case, they had to raise tons of money to buy computers. And their big innovation was that they had packed more computing power into a square foot of this very expensive server farm, which allowed them then to index the internet and to provide better and faster search. But the whole point is they had to raise a lot of money to buy a lot of computers to start their business, whereas today with cloud services, you don't almost have to raise a single euro or dollar or whatever your currency is to do that. You could start Google hypothetically with $50 in your bank account. So, and the same thing is true in hardware. So first, I want to frame it as a story of possibility, but I also want to acknowledge that what was the internet about? It was really this foundational technology that enabled so many other things. It took a couple of years for us to figure out what those things were and what is blockchain. It is a foundational technology that allows many other things, not only cryptocurrency or NFTs, but also smart contracts and AI. What is AI? It is a foundational technology that will enable all these other things. So, I would predict number one that uncertainty continues. But the second thing I would say is we're all in the same camp. It's all a little bit frightening. But what I was trying to do earlier by painting this technology as possibility is to frame it in such a way, or reframe it as a way. I was doing the tools of the book as what's the opportunity for me? And that people like to watch comic book movies, those are fiction. Nobody comes to this world with some outsized, outlandish capability that is so much more than you. We're all human beings. We're all trying to understand what this technology is about and those who are willing to see it as possibility engage with it in a wise manner are going to do well. And by wise manner, I mean number one, remember technology takes time to emerge and develop. So, you don't want to move too slow. You also maybe don't want to move too fast. And by that, I mean, I don't want to encourage people to bet every cent of their life savings on a technology that will take maybe years to emerge. And the other part I mean by wise is that we make choices in how we use technology. And technology can be used for very good purposes and very negative purposes. And I really want to encourage people to say, as I use technology, am I creating the kind of world I want to live in? And if you have children, the kind of world you would want your children to live in. Because our tools are getting more powerful. When we push the lever, the impact is bigger. We have to think very carefully about these choices. There's a little segment I did on the NCI learning hub about this called The Text We Live By. What are the technologies you live by? Where I talk more about