A History Lesson That Is Not That Interesting but It's Not Like a History Book
Hans: I think Dalio is smart enough to know that as well there's no way he doesn't being in the role he has been in for many years. Nick: He ultimately does not deliver a great history lesson or great history book and maybe the point of the book ultimately is not meant to be a history book but it would have been interesting if a guy with his resources could have funded a team of historians to do that analysis. Hans: It falls into that overall category of somewhat high level analysis that is intriguing to yuppies basically.
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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has written several books on the world of investing and the economy in general based on his years of experience as manager of the world’s largest hedge fund. In the latest of his ‘Principles’ series, Dalio applies his quantitative approach of macro investing to analyzing countries, seeking to identify the factors that lead to strength such as education and work ethic, as well as lagging indicators such as a reserve currency that allow a country to spend beyond its means but ultimately presage a fall from dominance. Notably, Dalio sees China’s rise to the top of global power as likely, with America, while ahead, slowly declining. Tonight we debate the merits of his analysis, as well as the overall validity of a global macroeconomic approach that overlooks key factors such as demographics in forecasting long term power status.